Henrique Rocha vs Alex Martinez Prediction, Picks, Odds, H2H, August 1st

For our first preview on Thursday, we’re going to head down to the ATP Challenger Tour and look at Henrique Rocha vs Alex Martinez from the Porto Open in Portugal.

Martinez’s win probability is only 26.5%, while Rocha is favoured to win at 1.28 odds. The handicap is 4.5 games and the total games line is 21.

Our Rocha vs Martinez prediction is for Rocha to win with ease.

Henrique Rocha vs Alex Martinez Prediction: Rocha Clear of Spanish Counterpart

• Prediction: Rocha -4.5 Games
• Best Odds: 1.97
• Bookmaker: Pinnacle
• Stakes: 5/10

Odds updated at 1:30 am UK Time on August 1st, 2024. 

As cool as it’s been to discover a new player from the NCAA ranks the last week or so, this is where Martinez’s dream run should come to an abrupt conclusion.

Whether it’s his time spent on court, the quality gap between these players, the lack of quality wins from the Spaniard in last week’s surprise run to the final of a Challenger event or the matchup pitting two guys that are excellent grinders against one another with one being superior to the other, there is nothing here to like going the way of the 23-year-old.

Check out our Novak Djokovic vs Stefanos Tsitsipas preview from the Paris 2024 Olympics over on the expert insights page.

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Henrique Rocha Recent Form

This season has been a mixed bag for Rocha, with a lot of success at the Challenger level, but some early losses in tournaments as well. Now, a lot of the latter comes down to playing tour level competition (and he’s still been competitive in a lot of those matches) and the former was probably the goal after he reeled off so many wins at the ITF Tour last year.

The good news is he fits in just fine at this level. The better news? His opponent on Thursday is someone who hasn’t proven much of anything at any level of professional tennis.

Without much power to hit through Rocha, the Portuguese should also have a big matchup edge here, as it’s tough to outlast him or wait for errors against his solid baseline play.

I’m going to trust Rocha not just to get this done, but to do so in dominant fashion.

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Alex Martinez Recent Form

I have to give props to Martinez for one thing. Entering the Segovia Challenger 50 last week, he was barely ranked inside the top-1000. Now? A win in this match and he would propel himself inside the world’s top-600 with some room to spare.

The collegiate tennis player was met with some firm resistance when he started his pro summer of tournaments this year, losing regularly on the lower ITF Tour, before reaching the final in Segovia as a qualifier. Now, that was a Challenger 50 – the lowest type of tournament on that Tour in terms of prize money and ranking points – so the field was weak and he still had to enter in qualifying.

It also means we have to question the quality of opponents he’s beaten. Only one stands out as being a quality competitor and that’s Nicolas Alvarez Varona, himself not near the level of someone like Rocha.

Even in the first round here, he played a strong prospect from Great Britain, but one that still has a fairly unrefined game.

Throw in the fact that Wednesday was just his second day off in 10 and that he’s spent a lot of time on court, between having to qualify in Segovia, play several main draw matches and need three sets in a good chunk of his wins the last week, and I think that he may also fatigue as this match wears on. That won’t be helped by a Rocha who loves playing long points and physical matches and who should be much more fresh after breezing through his opening match.

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Henrique Rocha vs Alex Martinez H2H – Stat of the Match

With Martinez being as new as they come on the Challenger circuit, it’s no surprise that this will be the first encounter between the two.

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