tennis | Thursday, April 13, 2023 7:52 AM

Thursday Tennis Best Bet: ATP Monte Carlo, Holger Rune vs Matteo Berrettini

Jon Reid

Holger Rune vs Matteo Berrettini Best Bet: Thursday, April 13th

Tough three-set win that doesn’t cover the handicap from Nicolas Jarry, who was only broken once in three sets, but it was enough to ensure he couldn’t win by four or more games.

Thursday, it’s the match between Holger Rune and Matteo Berrettini that tickles my fancy and will be the match to bet on from Monte Carlo.

In this article:

Holger Rune vs Matteo Berrettini Preview
Holger Rune vs Matteo Berrettini Best Bet

Holger Rune vs Matteo Berrettini Preview

April 13th, 14:30 (UK Time)

Rune got his clay season off to a tremendous start, with a straight-sets victory over Dominic Thiem.

Despite Thiem looking to hammer away with his groundstrokes, the Dane was able to track everything down, while also mixing in aggressive play of his own.

His first serve was working well, and the pressure he managed to apply on return was consistent and effective.

With the defensive and movement skills that are rewarded on clay, as well as sneaky power and the ability to hit with plenty of topspin, the youngster is one to watch on clay in the coming months.

He also matches up well with Berrettini, whose backhand is a visible weakness and who has never been accused of being fleet of foot on court.

In his second-round match against Francisco Cerundolo, he needed nearly three hours to advance, blowing the first set from 5-0 up and having his movement picked on when Cerundolo was able to kick serves out wide and drag him off court.

Considering the fact that Cerundolo can be erratic and doesn’t possess nearly as strong of a backhand as Rune, nor the ability to reset points as effectively on return, and he still almost toppled Berrettini, I think it’ll be tough for the big Italian as he jumps up in terms of quality of competition.

Then there’s the fact that Berrettini still has yet to show on a consistent basis that he’s back to his best.

He doesn’t have any wins against top players in 2023 and beating Maxime Cressy on slower clay and Cerundolo in a nail-biter doesn’t do anything to change that.

I wouldn’t be surprised if the time on the court in his second-round match affects him on Thursday either since he’s playing another guy who can extend points and force him into a physical battle.

Holger Rune vs Matteo Berrettini Best Bet

With Rune being a natural clay courter, possessing a strong serve against a lacklustre returner in Berrettini and having big edges in several departments matchup-wise, I have this handicap up at -4 games.

The ability for Berrettini to find a lot of points behind his first serve is still relevant on a slower surface, which is the only reason I don’t have this moving to the key number of -4.5 and the only thing keeping me from making this a near-max stake.

I’ll gladly take the 3-game handicap that the market has on offer at the moment though.