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tennis | Friday, December 29, 2023 8:53 AM
Hubert Hurkacz vs Thiago Seyboth Wild United Cup Expert Tip: Upstart Brazilian to Keep Things Close
Jon Reid
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Hubert Hurkacz vs Thiago Seyboth Wild (United Cup): Friday, December 29th
I hope everyone enjoyed the short break from tennis. We’re back at it with the 2024 season getting underway before the new year down under at the United Cup!
Let’s first take a look at our ATP preview from Friday’s (or Saturday’s) action, as we look at Hubert Hurkacz vs Thiago Seyboth Wild.
For more daily tennis tips, visit the bettingexpert community, but if you want more expert tips from Jon Reid, visit our Expert Insights section.
- Hubert Hurkacz vs Thiago Seyboth Wild Expert Tip
- Hubert Hurkacz Recent Form
- Thiago Seyboth Wild Recent Form
- Hubert Hurkacz vs Thiago Seyboth Wild H2H Stat of the Match
- Gamble Responsibly
Hubert Hurkacz vs Thiago Seyboth Wild Expert Tip
This is actually a Saturday evening match in Australia, but will likely take place overnight in North America, and late in the morning in Europe and the UK (this month will be hectic with the time zones).
It does leave everyone plenty of time to follow the tip if they so wish, though, and I do think there’s some value in backing the heavy underdog here.
On the surface, this is an elite server on a quick court and his favourite surface against someone whose career record isn’t very strong on the surface.
Dig a bit deeper though, and you’ll see that Seyboth Wild actually started to come around a bit at the end of last season indoors and started to hold serve a bit more frequently with his first serve still being strong and his forehand being a weapon. Throw in Hurkacz’s struggles on return, and you’ve got a decent candidate to back on a handicap that is higher than the key number of four games.
Odds as at 12:00 am UK Time on December 29th, 2023. Odds may now differ.
Hubert Hurkacz Recent Form
It was another enigmatic season for the big Pole, who finished the year inside the world’s top-10.
This is despite a slew of relatively early exits from big events, including the U.S. Open. I’ve always been one to believe that there is value in opposing him, though, since he is so serve-reliant, which means there are bound to be more close sets and thus close matches when he’s involved. Close matches shouldn’t see odds of 1.30 or 1.35 in as many cases as we see with Hurkacz.
The titles in Marseille (all four wins were very close) and Shanghai really helped boost that ranking. A final in Basel didn’t hurt either.
Those were all events with quicker courts, which tells us what kind of conditions he prefers. Those will be on offer in Australia over the next month, but I’m not sold he’s going to win by large margins during his time down under.
Last year he struggled to dominate matches and rarely covered higher handicaps. Now, he did play stronger competition than the likes of Seyboth Wild, but with my numbers showing an undervaluation on the Brazilian, that doesn’t dissuade me a whole lot.
Thiago Seyboth Wild Recent Form
As I alluded to earlier, both in terms of the scorelines and having watched some of his late-season matches, I’m actually more sold on Seyboth Wild’s improvements on hard courts than most.
I think his serve is more than adequate and will benefit from the quicker courts making it seem even more powerful, while his forehand is the perfect complement to finish off points that Hurkacz may be able to extend with a desperation return on the first deliveries.
I’m also prone to believe that Brazil having opened up Group A play against Spain on Friday in Australia (Thursday night most other places), that Seyboth Wild having played a match in the conditions should provide the slightest of edges to him.
I’m not expecting him to break more than once (if that) in this one, but I’m confident his comfort on quicker courts has improved and that his game is powerful enough to generate consistent holds of serve to cover this handicap.
Hubert Hurkacz vs Thiago Seyboth Wild H2H – Stat of the Match
No prior matches between these two, which isn’t surprising since Seyboth Wild plays primarily on clay and had been languishing on the Challenger Tour for quite some time after a spell of really poor play.
Hurkacz is more of a hard courter and obviously plays exclusively on the main tour.
That’s actually why I believe we’re seeing an exploitable price here. We have a higher-ranked player on his preferred surface with one of the elite serves in the sport, taking on someone that’s seen as a clay courter and Challenger level player.
It’s not pretty, but I do think the market has gone overboard in backing Hurkacz here to such an expensive price.
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