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Tennis | Thursday, July 4, 2024 7:34 AM

Hubert Hurkacz vs Arthur Fils Prediction, Stats, Form, H2H, July 4th

Hubert Hurkacz vs Arthur Fils Prediction, Stats, Form, H2H, July 4th
Aflo Co. Ltd. / Alamy Stock Photo: Hubert Hurkacz of Poland during the men's singles match

The second round plays to completion (weather dependent) on Thursday at Wimbledon and we’ve got another value play to back. Let’s delve into Hubert Hurkacz vs Arthur Fils.

FIls’ win probability is just 25%, with Hurkacz favoured to win at 1.25 odds. The handicap is 4.5 games and the total games line is 40.5.

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Our Hurkacz vs Fils prediction is for Fils to be very competitive.

Hubert Hurkacz vs Arthur Fils (Wimbledon) Prediction: Teaser

  • Predictions: Over 3.5 Sets & Fils to win
  • Best Odds: 1.65 & 4.00
  • Bookmaker: Pinnacle & Bet365
  • Stakes: 3/10 & 1/10

Odds as at 2:00 am UK Time on July 4th, 2024. Odds may now differ.

So many things to go over here. First and foremost, Hurkacz was pretty poor in his first match against an underpowered journeyman. Then again, we can’t just assume his forehand is going to be as poor as it was against Radu Albot.

Now, to keep the conversation about that going, if his forehand was poor against the less powerful Albot, how much trouble is he going to be in against someone with a much more powerful forehand that can force more errors and take more time away?

The big questions in this matchup for me (and the determining factors for who comes out on top) are: Can Hurkacz land a high percentage of first serves? If he can, he’ll rack up the holds of serve with his elite serving. If not, Fils should generate a lot of pressure on return and seize control of baseline exchanges, as he did against Dominic Stricker.

The second question is how will Fils play from the baseline? He’s been notoriously erratic this season and it’s the primary reason he’s struggled to string together wins on a consistent basis. Hurkacz doesn’t have big power from the baseline, but he is solid, doesn’t commit errors and doesn’t mind longer rallies. If the young Frenchman is spewing errors from the baseline, he’s in trouble.

Luckily, we have Fils at a price that only requires him pulling out the win 25% of the time for us to break even for one bet and just to win one set to win the other. Seems like a decent deal to me!

Hubert Hurkacz Recent Form

As is often the case with Hurkacz, his record looks great this grass season, but his performances have been less than convincing. He may be 6-1 this year with his only loss in a final against the No. 1 player in the world, but he’s won every best-of-three match by a singular break of serve, needed a lot of tiebreaks and played really poor tennis on the whole in the opening round.

Hurkacz simply doesn’t blow people away. His return game isn’t very good and he doesn’t really have any weapons from the baseline. It makes him somewhat one dimensional (though that dimension is elite) with his serve and it means he’s rarely going to win matches in straightforward fashion.

I outlined above exactly what he needs to do, and it aligns pretty well with his only two strengths. Serve well, play with good rally tolerance and hope for mistakes.

Arthur Fils Recent Form

Fils has also had a fairly decent grass season. He lost to a top-10 player in Alexander Zverev by a fairly close margin (three setter) and one break to Ugo Humbert, a decent grass courter.

The break in that Humbert match was pretty illustrative of why Fils can struggle, with some incredibly poor errors and shotmaking leading to the decisive break in the opening set.

The talent is undeniable though. He has a huge serve, can hammer winners from the forehand side and moves pretty well for a player with a power based game.

Once he develops more rally tolerance and patience, he’s going to be a mainstay in the world’s top-15.

Hubert Hurkacz vs Arthur Fils H2H – Stat of the Match

This will be the first time the two big servers have played one another at the professional level.

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