Iga Swiatek vs Marketa Vondrousova Western and Southern Open Preview and Expert Tip: Swiatek with Excellent Matchup to Reach SF

Iga Swiatek vs Marketa Vondrousova (Western and Southern Open): Friday, August 18th

Great tennis from Ons Jabeur, who raced out of the gates and appeared to be poised for an easy victory. The rain came pouring down, however, and during the break in the locker room, Donna Vekic retired, so our -3 games handicap wager ended up void.

Friday’s WTA preview for the Western & Southern Open features Iga Swiatek vs Marketa Vondrousova.

In this article: 

• Expert Tip
• Iga Swiatek Recent Form
• Marketa Vondrousova Recent Form
• Stat of the Match
• Responsible Gambling

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Iga Swiatek vs Marketa Vondrousova Expert Tip

While Swiatek isn’t infallible, I don’t think Vondrousova has the skill set that typically troubles the world No. 1.

While it’s true the Czech’s form is daunting, she’s had plenty of iffy moments along the way this week in Cincinnati.

Where Swiatek has consistently been a 5.5-game or 6-game favourite against everyone but Aryna Sabalenka in recent memory, we’re seeing the handicap come below the 5-game threshold here, solely because of the win streak her counterpart in this one has been on.

Combine that somewhat illusory form (especially this week) with Vondrousova not really having the game profile to trouble Swiatek consistently, I’m happy to create a quasi-Asian handicap here by backing the -4.5 and the -5-game markets.

Read on for more expert insights.

• Expert Tips: Swiatek -4.5 Games at 1.92 with Pinnacle, using 3/10 stakes & Swiatek -5 Games at 2.15 with Pinnacle, using 3/10 stakes.

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Iga Swiatek Recent Form 

It’s tough to parse Swiatek’s form in recent years, considering just how dominant she’s been. For instance, she’s 52-8 this year, which is absolutely absurd, but it’s somehow a win percentage of 1% worse than her final record from a year ago.

Her summer, however, has been pretty strong with the exception of her second loss of the year to American No. 1 Jessica Pegula.

She dropped a set Thursday to the powerful Qinwen Zheng, before dropping two games the rest of the way and in her first match of the week, she lost just a single game against another big hitter in Danielle Collins.

It’s that raw power that normally is most likely to trouble Swiatek. We’ve seen both Elena Rybakina and Aryna Sabalenka trouble her consistently as well this year, and while she won her home event in Warsaw a few weeks ago, last year she was stunned by the big-serving and big-hitting Caroline Garcia in the final a year ago.

Vondrousova simply doesn’t possess that power, and with Swiatek having won her two matches this week by an average of nine games, Swiatek is poised for another strong match on Friday morning.

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Marketa Vondrousova Recent Form

Vondrousova’s recent form has to be tops on tour.

After all, she’s won 12 of her last 13 matches, with every one of those matches being contested at either the 1000 level or a grand slam.

Her loss in Montreal to Coco Gauff, however, was a bad one, and this week against inferior competition, she’s seen slow starts against Mayar Sherif and Anastasia Potapova, while needing a 12-game first set against Sloane Stephens.

Any slow start against the solid serving Swiatek with the forehand and ability to run away with sets could be disastrous for the soon-to-be world No. 9.

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Iga Swiatek vs Marketa Vondrousova H2H – Stat of the Match

The head-to-head here is about as lopsided as it could be with Swiatek winning both meetings in dominant fashion. Those came, however, three years ago and on clay, where almost no one beats the Pole. Hard to read too much into that, other than as confirmation that Vondrousova doesn’t really have the weapons to trouble her.

Statistically, the big problem here for Vondrousova is that she isn’t all that strong on serve and relies on an elite return game.

Going up against one of – if not the best returner in the game, that isn’t the greatest weakness to have.

She doesn’t back up her serve on hard courts particularly well (she’s won just 65% of her first serve points on hard courts in 2023 against all competition) and on return, where she really needs to go to work, she’s taking on a server that has held over three quarters of the time in the last 52 weeks.

Poor matchup all-around for Vondrousova.

Odds as at 3:30 pm UK Time on August 18th, 2023. Odds may now differ.

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Responsible Gambling

At bettingexpert, we always take a responsible approach to gambling. We’ll never bet more than we can afford or chase our losses. For more advice, head to our Responsible Gambling hub.