Ons Jabeur vs Katie Volynets Prediction, Stats, Form, H2H, March 8th 2024

The third of our WTA previews for Friday from the BNP Paribas Open features one of the top seeds. Ons Jabeur vs Katie Volynets provides the favourite with a great chance to get back on track against a player she should match up well with.

Volynets’ win probability comes in at 35.6% while Jabeur is favoured to win at 1.47 odds. The handicap is 3.5 games and the total games line is 21.

For a few more tips from Friday’s tennis action from Jon Reid, head on over to the expert insights section

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Ons Jabeur vs Katie Volynets Prediction: Market Overreacting to Jabeur Struggles

• Prediction: Jabeur -3.5 Games
• Best Odds: 1.88
• Bookmaker: Pinnacle
• Stakes: 5/10

Odds as of 4:00 am UK Time on March 8th, 2024. Odds may now differ.

I’m not going to make the case that Jabeur has been just fine this year and has looked at every part of her top-10 ranking. She has looked mentally down on the court at times and has physically looked compromised after some longer matches as well.

With that said, two of her losses have come to phenom Mirra Andreeva and the top-15 Beatriz Haddad Maia.

Her last appearance in Doha was extremely poor against Lesia Tsurenko, but there is no way that I can pass on a handicap under 4.5-5 games here. That’s exactly what we’re presented with when the world No. 6 takes on local Californian and wild card Katie Volynets.

If Jabeur cannot cover the -3.5 games in this one, she may be better off taking an extended absence from the sport to refresh, recharge and come back ready to dominate again.

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Ons Jabeur Recent Form

She may only be 2-3 this year, but Jabeur’s losses (as detailed above) haven’t been to slouches. Now, the way she has lost those matches has been a concern, but having taken nearly a month off, there’s a reasonable chance that she’s managed to clear her mind and recuperate for anything that may have been bothering her physically

Jabeur is still one of the most electrifying players in the sport when her game is on. She has one of the better drop shots on tour, can hit through her forehand, has a great first serve, slices effectively and when she’s fit, covers the court as well.

Playing against someone who lacks any semblance of aggressive, powerful tennis, there is no reason that she shouldn’t be in control from start to finish here.

Volynets may have the crowd on her side, but that’s about where her advantages in this matchup end.

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Katie Volynets Recent Form

Volynets has posted a very nice 13-5 record to this point in 2024. Now, only two of those wins were against legitimate tour-level hardcourt opponents, and they each have their vulnerabilities.

You can’t take away her first round win against the burgeoning superstar Mirra Andreeva, but the teenager has been showing some signs of struggle in recent months, with her lack of power becoming more and more of an issue.

Other than those wins, Volynets has just been picking up wins she should have in tournaments she was smart to put on her schedule.

She’s a solid defender, works the outer thirds of the court well and she can hit down the line with great accuracy, which can help her flip control of points, or get them back to neutral footing at the very least.

The question remains, is that enough at the top levels of the game though? Friday’s match should provide us with an idea of whether it is or not.

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Ons Jabeur vs Katie Volynets H2H – Stat of the Match

This is another one of those matches that hasn’t seen the two players meet before this occasion.

With Volynets playing primarily in qualifying or down at the 250 and 125K levels (fields Jabeur is too highly ranked to join, with a few exceptions), the two surely haven’t crossed paths all that often in the past.

If we look at the blended hard court elo ratings here, we can see just how much the market is weighing Jabeur’s struggles. The experienced Tunisian is still a top-10 player by that metric and has a lead of over 250 points over her American opponent.

Normally, that would represent an implied probability in win percentage that would correlate to a 4.5-game handicap at a minimum. The fact we’re getting 3.5 games seems far too easy, whether Jabeur is struggling or not.

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