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Tennis | Tuesday, July 9, 2024 8:04 AM

Jannik Sinner vs Daniil Medvedev Prediction, Picks, Odds, H2H, July 9th

Jannik Sinner vs Daniil Medvedev Prediction, Picks, Odds, H2H, July 9th
Associated Press / Alamy Stock Photo: Daniil Medvedev plays a forehand return to Aleksandar Kovacevic

We’re down to the nitty gritty at Wimbledon as Tuesday brings the quarterfinals. Let’s start our men’s previews off with the Jannik Sinner vs Daniil Medvedev match. If you’ll recall, this is a rematch from the Australian Open final back in January.

Medvedev is only expected to win about 22% of the time, while Sinner is favored to win at 1.24 odds. The handicap is 5.5 games and the total games line is 39.

Our Sinner vs Medvedev prediction is to pass with the market betting the match into efficiency.

Jannik Sinner vs Daniil Medvedev Prediction: Sinner to Win, but Can Medvedev Keep Things Competitive?

Tough to get involved in this match. I liked Medvedev on quicker courts in Australia at a more expensive price despite his time on the court, but not here. Why?

It’s a valid question, but it comes down to two things in particular. First, Medvedev has always been tremendous on quicker hard courts, but much less convincing on grass courts in the last few years, despite a few deep runs at Wimbledon.

The other big difference is that Sinner has established himself as the world’s best player. We knew what he was capable of in January, but this season is other-worldly, with Sinner suffering just three losses. All of them came in deciding sets and two were to fellow prodigy Carlos Alcaraz.

It’s hard not to believe he’s around 80% to win almost every match he plays against players not named Alcaraz.

More quarterfinal previews are up on the expert insights page.

Jannik Sinner Recent Form

I’ll keep it short and sweet here. One grand slam win, one Masters 1000 title, two ATP 500 level titles, 44 wins, 3 losses (and one walkover given out in Madrid).

That tells you all you need to know about Sinner’s form. He has power that is nearly unmatched on tour from the baseline, has improved his serve and yet isn’t complacent on return, and has made himself a tough player to deal with in that respect as well.

He’s simply the best in the world at the moment.

Daniil Medvedev Recent Form

A single break margin of victory against Nuno Borges in Germany, a loss as a massive favorite the next round, four tight sets against an underpowered Alexandre Muller, and then a nice start that ended up seeing the last two sets be extremely close against Jan Lennard Struff.

As I said earlier, Medvedev has gotten himself to this point, but he hasn’t been all that convincing. Even in his last match, he trailed 0-3, won five straight games, and moved on when Grigor Dimitrov had to retire as he injured himself.

Tough to trust the Medvedev form. The saving grace may be that he’s tended to play Sinner fairly close in the past – though on hard courts – and Sinner isn’t someone who comes to net all that much (something Medvedev can struggle with as he plays so far back behind the baseline).

Jannik Sinner vs Daniil Medvedev H2H – Stat of the Match

This is one of the head-to-head records that is deceiving. If you see someone pushing a Medvedev bet on socials because he leads the series 6-5, unfollow and run the other way.

That much may be true, but the last five matches have gone Sinner’s way. They’ve all been on hard courts, so Medvedev has kept them close. This will be a pretty stern test for him against a young gun that has seized control of their meetings in the last year or two.

Safer Gambling

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