tennis | Thursday, June 22, 2023 7:49 AM

Thursday Tennis Best Bet: ATP Challenger Ilkley, Jason Kubler vs Juncheng Shang

Jon Reid

Jason Kubler vs Juncheng Shang Best Bet: Thursday, June 22nd

Nice come-from-behind win from Cam Norrie on Wednesday. Would’ve been nicer had our women’s selection not choked away a few leads, but we’ll take any sort of good luck we can get at this point!

For Thursday, we’re actually going to check in on one of the five Challenger Tour events taking place this week. There’s a bit of value on offer at the ATP Tour level, but the biggest value on the board is being played on the grass in Ilkley.

With that said, let’s take a look at the matchup featuring Jason Kubler and Juncheng Shang.

In this article:

Jason Kubler vs Juncheng Shang Preview
Jason Kubler vs Juncheng Shang Best Bet

Jason Kubler vs Juncheng Shang Preview

June 22nd, 14:00 (UK Time)

This matchup is a clash of a talented young gun emerging on a tour that has had his issues with finding a consistently high level and remaining in peak physical shape against a now-journeyman former top junior that has become a rock-solid player on quick courts after years of dealing with injuries of his own.

Shang has really impressed over the course of the last year, particularly at this level, though I would make the case that grass may not be his best surface, despite a decent record so far on the lawn courts in 2023.

The 18-year-old has seven wins already on his resume, but one of those victories came against Emilio Gomez (winless in his career on grass), another came against Oleksii Krutykh (playing his second-ever grass-court match) and another two came against Stuart Parker, an ITF hard courter.

Needless to say, I’m not all that impressed just yet.

He’s also someone that can play with pace but could use a bit more time than grass courts afford to set up his shots and his forehand still plays with a decent amount of topspin, which isn’t ideal on grass.

The other concern with Shang? He’s had physical issues in the past and has had trouble playing back-to-back weeks with four or five matches at each tournament without running out of gas. After having had to qualify both last week in Nottingham and at this event as well, Thursday marks his ninth match in 12 days. Throw in the fact that five of those have gone three sets, and I have questions about how the young gun from China will hold up physically.

As for Kubler, it’s the complete opposite. I have nearly no concerns with his game. It’s not the most powerful out there, but he’s not by any means a purely defensive player and with grass courts playing fast, his game tends to be a bit more imposing in these conditions.

As is the case with many Australians, Kubler is also right at home on quicker courts and has shown a decent level in his career on grass, not having many issues with the lower bounce.

Matchup-wise, I like the fact that he can play a physical, consistent game, as it is well-positioned to exploit any potential fatigue from Shang. His flatter style could also pose problems for Shang, who is more comfortable with a higher bounce and contact point when he strikes the ball.

Jason Kubler vs Juncheng Shang Best Bet

It’s hard to believe that Kubler isn’t in a more commanding position in the betting markets ahead of this match.

He’s more experienced on the grass, is more at home on quicker courts, has fewer question marks regarding his potential stamina as the match drags on and has only lost to legitimate tour-level competition this year on the grass in Andy Murray and Ugo Humbert.

There were concerns a few weeks ago regarding his back, but he’s looked pretty decent so far through two matches and six sets of tennis and battled back against a tricky Mattia Bellucci from a set down to reach this point.

I’ll happily back Kubler to win this one, as I have him closer to the 1.51 price point than the 1.63 currently available. It also means that my handicap is about a full game lower than where the market has assessed this match. That is a large difference on grass, where breaks are at a premium.