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Frustrating stuff again, as Daniil Medvedev started out on absolute fire, with a 4-0 lead in the first set, before completely disappearing on return and needing a long three-set match to get past Christopher O’Connell.
For our last writeup of the week, we’ll stick with the ATP 250 event in Doha and the semifinal match between Jiri Lehecka and Andy Murray.
In this article:
February 24th, 14:30 (UK Time)
What a week for Murray, who has won three matches at an ATP event for the first time since June of last year, when he reached the final on grass in Stuttgart and the third time on the whole since the start of the 2022 season.
With the procedure he had done on his hips, it’s been tough on Murray to really sustain long runs week in, week out at the highest level of the game.
That could very well come into play on Friday as well. This won’t just be his fourth match in five days, but he has spent over 7.5 hours on court in the three matches leading, and could very well find himself fatiguing before all is said and done in this one.
To make matters worse, he takes on a young player that is one of the emerging talents on the ATP Tour.
Lehecka has amassed an 11-3 record on the year (worth noting I’m including Davis Cup matches in this, otherwise it’s a 9-3 record), all on hard courts.
He has a big game, with a strong serve and forehand capable of dictating – and finishing – points. He’s fairly athletic and as his rally tolerance builds, so too does his presence at the higher levels of the sport.
He’s also been far more efficient this week in Doha, despite playing much tougher opposition.
Murray has needed three sets to beat Lorenzo Sonego, who is decent, but not great on hard courts, an Alexander Zverev still looking to build form off an injury break and Alexandre Muller – a Challenger Tour journeyman – Lehecka has won six of seven sets played, beating players who can hit fairly big in Andrey Rublev and Emil Ruusuvuori.
In terms of form and fitness, I think it’s clear who the better player at the moment is, but metrically, Lehecka is also out ahead of Murray.
His hold-plus break percentage in 2023 is about seven points higher and his blended elo rating on hard courts is also ahead of the veteran Brit’s.
I’m happy to back him to end Sir Andy’s run in Doha on Friday.
Odds as at 5:00 am UK Time on February 24th, 2022. Odds may now differ.
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