tennis | Wednesday, April 5, 2023 8:07 AM

Wednesday Tennis Best Bet: ATP Houston, John Isner vs Gijs Brouwer

Jon Reid

John Isner vs Gijs Brouwer Best Bet: Wednesday, April 5th

Outside of a nice, quick start from Albert Ramos Vinolas, Jurij Rodionov was the better player in his first match on clay courts of 2023 to sink Tuesday’s bet from the men’s side.

For Wednesday, it’s over to Houston, where the tour is playing the American clay-court Championships in Texas. Let’s talk a bit more about the match between John Isner and Gijs Brouwer.

In this article:

John Isner vs Gijs Brouwer Preview
John Isner vs Gijs Brouwer Best Bet

John Isner vs Gijs Brouwer Preview

April 5th, 23:00 (UK Time)

I’ll preface this preview by saying that this may not be the match with the highest entertainment value on the docket for Wednesday. In fact, it may be the matchup with the least amount of value when it comes to entertainment.

From a betting perspective, however, I think there is an angle to exploit.

With age, Isner’s serve has not lost a step. His return game, though, is a different story. Despite having looked surprisingly agile in a match or two, his overall movement and ability on the return of serve has really diminished in the past few years (beyond its usual limitations).

That alone makes the over intriguing in a match lined at 23.5 games. Even on clay (more on that in a minute), that number is low for a match featuring a man that has seen 65% of his sets go to at least 12 games this season, and in one of the few matches that didn’t feature a 12-game set, he played three sets anyway.

Then there’s the fact that Brouwer is a competent server in his own right and has the lefty game to ensure that Isner struggles on return. If he can consistently serve to the backhand wing, he should find it relatively simple to keep Isner hemmed into that corner, which would lead to relatively simple service holds.

John Isner vs Gijs Brouwer Best Bet

The value in this match stems from the fact that this match is going to be played on clay courts.

With the clay being supplied by Har Tru (which plays much quicker than traditional red clay), and Isner ageing and losing his ability on return, but still possessing his huge serve, I have this number much higher.

Brouwer is by no means a clay courter, but his serve is strong and his lefty game should allow him to pin Isner to his weaker backhand side and hold serve consistently.

I’ll back the over at 23.5 games here.