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A new week brings yet another big 1000-level combined event for both tours, as the ATP and WTA head from the Spanish capital to the Italian capital of Rome.
The Foro Italico is the focal point of the tennis world for the coming fortnight. For our men’s preview, we’ll examine the qualifying matchup between Juan Manuel Cerundolo and Jelle Sels.
In this article:
May 8th, 16:30 (UK Time)
A lovely first match for the younger of the Cerundolo brothers in Rome, as he takes on the Dutchman who has struggled mightily in 2023.
Sels began his campaign on the last day of February, just over three months after his last match on tour in 2022, and he simply hasn’t looked anywhere near his best.
While he possesses a decent serve and forehand, his rally tolerance at the moment is nowhere to be found. His clay season has been littered with losses and poor ones at that. Against decent Challenger Tour level competition, he’s seen scorelines of 0-6, 0-6 or 1-6, 3-6.
Trends aren’t necessarily predictive, but Sels’ inability to keep the ball in the court has really hurt him on a surface that almost necessitates at least some sort of consistent play.
As for Cerundolo, he’s a wizard in these slower conditions, and while he’s lost a few matches of late, they were almost exclusively to in-form players, up-and-coming prospects or a combination of both.
He’s also reached a Challenger Tour final in recent weeks and possesses the consistent play needed here in abundance.
The market likes Cerundolo in this one, but considering just how poor Sels has been, the fact he’s been prone to lopsided sets and the calibre of player Cerundolo is, I have the Argentine as a much larger favourite.
I’ll split my staking between the under here of 20.5 games, which I have closer to 19 and the handicap at -4.5.
Odds as at 2:00 am on May 8th, 2023. Odds may now differ.
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