Anhelina Kalinina vs Caroline Dolehide Prediction, Expert Picks, Stats, H2H, 4/26/24

First preview of the day from the Mutua Madrid Open comes from the WTA singles draw, as we look at Anhelina Kalinina vs Caroline Dolehide.

Dolehide is only expected to win 26.7% while Kalinina is the favourite at 1.29 odds. The handicap is 4.5 games and the total games line is 20.5.

Jon Reid’s Kalinina vs Dolehide prediction is for Dolehide to win a set and then for her to also win the match.

Kalinina vs Dolehide Prediction: Kalinina Being Given Far Too Much Credit on Clay Courts

• Prediction: Dolehide +1.5 sets & Dolehide to win
• Best Odds: 2.02 & 3.75
• Bookmaker: Pinnacle & Bet365
• Stakes: 3/10 & 2/10

bet with bet365Odds as at 1:30 am UK Time on April 26th, 2024. Odds may now differ.

Neither of these women is well known for their clay court tennis, and that’s exactly the reason why I think it’s hard to make either one of them the overwhelming favorite.

Kalinina also tends to be a streaky player, so relying on her to win such a high percentage of the time doesn’t seem like the wisest of wagers.

Dolehide may not be the most adept player on the dirt either, but she did look a bit better on the surface last season and being in altitude should help her since she does have a decent first serve that should be a little more effective and she lands them at a high rate with consistency.

More previews are available for Friday’s action on the expert insights page.

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Anhelina Kalinina Recent Form

Kalinina is coming off a semifinal in Rouen, France where the draw pitted her against a now really bad Alize Cornet and then an underpowered Martina Trevisan who was uncharacteristically erratic, and teenage phenom Mirra Andreeva who has struggled for form of late and also tends to lose the plot from the baseline for stretches.

After that, she was beaten comprehensively in the first and third sets by the surprise package of the week in Magda Linette, who herself isn’t known for her clay court prowess.

A year ago, Kalinina put that streakiness I alluded to on full display during the clay court season. Though she made the final in Rome, she was sent packing in each of her other three tournaments in the first match she played.

She doesn’t pack a ton of power, but counterpunches well, can move the ball around the court decently and I wouldn’t say she’s underpowered either. The first serve is decent, but again, doesn’t generate all that many free points and on the whole, she’s just a pretty well-rounded player, but not so much that she should be valued at this kind of price.

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Caroline Dolehide Recent Form

The American’s first full season on the main tour didn’t start all that well. After improving her fitness and overall game a year ago and posting some decent results on the clay – though it was quicker green clay in her native country – her start to this year encapsulates why it’s so tough to make the jump to the main tour full time.

She won just twice in seven tournaments in the first two months of the campaign, and a lot of that had to do with being drawn against tough players in the early rounds (that’s always the challenge when you first get to the upper levels of the game and are unseeded).

A third-round run at Indian Wells provided some hope for her and her loss there came to the red-hot (at the time) Yue Yuan and it was as close as they come, ending in a third-set tiebreak.

I’m a little disappointed with her service metrics, but she does possess a decent first serve and her groundstrokes are strong enough to dictate play. Her surface versatility seems to be getting better and if you’re going to give me high odds like these, I’m going to bite.

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Anhelina Kalinina vs Caroline Dolehide H2H – Stat of the Match

No prior matches between these two on the pro tour.

Kalinina does have a large advantage in the elo ratings, and it feels like that has to be the primary driver of this price point. My issue is that most of that elo rating is built upon that run to the Rome final in 2023, and that feels like more of an outlier than anything, even with her run a week ago in France.

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