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tennis | Thursday, January 19, 2023 9:02 AM (Revised at: Thursday, January 19, 2023 1:17 PM)

Thursday Tennis Best Bet: ATP Australian Open, Karen Khachanov vs Frances Tiafoe

Thursday Tennis Best Bet: ATP Australian Open, Karen Khachanov vs Frances Tiafoe
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Karen Khachanov vs Frances Tiafoe Best Bet: Thursday, January 19th

Rough go with Corentin Moutet, who was broken far too often from being 30-0, 40-0 or 40-15 up on serve. He had a nice 6-3, 3-2 lead serving at 30-0 before it all came undone. To mix sports metaphors, par for the course with these blown leads.

Onto Thursday, where there is a “popcorn match” (what we in the tennis community call highly-anticipated encounters) to preview between Karen Khachanov and Frances Tiafoe.

In this article:


Karen Khachanov vs Frances Tiafoe Preview

January 20th, TBD (UK Time)

Anyone with a ticket to this one should thoroughly enjoy their experience, with two strong servers who can hit with pace from the baseline and produce some eye-popping shots from tough positions.

When it comes to betting this matchup, I’d have Tiafoe as the slight favourite, as I like his combination of aggression, pace and rally tolerance. His defending is a bit stronger, and he can still finish points and dictate play in his own service games.

With Khachanov more error-prone, and less diligent when it comes to point construction and tactical play, I’m surprised to see him as the slight favourite or as a pick ‘em in this matchup.

I’m happy to side with the better mover, with the ability to stick with the strong play of Khachanov in terms of holding serve and defending a tad bit better.


Karen Khachanov vs Frances Tiafoe Best Bet

Oftentimes, I spot value as a primarily matchup-based handicapper because another player may have a statistical edge that is driving the market their way.

In this case, however, over the course of the last 52 weeks, Tiafoe is better in most statistical categories on hard courts. Whether it’s as simple as win-loss record, or into the first serves won, second serves won or service hold rate.

Those numbers only become more pronounced when only the 2023 Australian start to the season is taken into account.

Tiafoe is well known to like quicker conditions, has a decent matchup edge, and is the superior statistical player. I’m happy to back him at even money to emerge victorious from this one.

  • Selection: Tiafoe to win
  • Best Odds: 1.92 (Pinnacle)
  • Stakes: 4/10

Odds as at 2:45 am on January 19th, 2022. Odds may now differ.


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