Katie Boulter vs Camila Giorgi Prediction, Stats, Form, H2H, March 6th 2024

Much like last week we could use some wins as we get to the middle of the week after a frustrating start. Another match from the WTA draw from the BNP Paribas Open is on the docket for our Wednesday previews. Let’s look more at our Katie Boulter vs Camila Giorgi prediction.

Giorgi’s win probability is only 31.2%% while Boulter is favoured to win at 1.36 odds. The handicap is 3.5 games and the total games line is 21.5.

For more daily tennis tips, visit the bettingexpert community, but if you want more expert tips from Jon Reid, visit our Expert Insights section.

Our Boulter vs Giorgi prediction is for Giorgi to win.

In this article:

• Katie Boulter vs Camila Giorgi Prediction
• Katie Boulter Recent Form
• Camila Giorgi Recent Form
• Katie Boulter vs Camila Giorgi H2H Stat of the Match
• Safer Gambling

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Katie Boulter vs Camila Giorgi Prediction

• Prediction: Giorgi to win
• Best Odds: 3.20
• Bookmaker: Bet365
• Stakes: 2/10

Odds as at 2:00 am UK Time on March 6th, 2024. Odds may now differ.

Go with our tip at bet365How does one parse a player’s form? That’s the big question and I don’t think there’s a perfect way to quantify how meaningful confidence, rhythm and the intangibles are. That also presents an opportunity. If one can apply some logic to each match, there are opportunities to find inefficiencies and overreactions in the betting markets.

That’s what I think we find here. Giorgi hasn’t been playing all that well, but has one of the most aggressive games that really plays across any surface, fast or slow. She’s also played a few three-setters and been competitive against decent competition.

At higher odds like this, I don’t mind opposing a strong player who isn’t in her most comfortable environs and has been building up her profile this season on her preferred faster courts.

Read on for more expert insights.

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Katie Boulter  Recent Form

As alluded to above, Boulter is having her best season yet, despite only being about two months into it or her career.

Yet the successes are winning the title last week in San Diego and a pair of underdog wins at the United Cup in the first week of the new season.

It seems as though the market is forgetting early exits to Ana Bogdan in Adelaide (where she did qualify, to be fair), Qinwen Zheng at the Australian Open and Anastasia Pavlyuchenkova in Linz.

Boulter has a big first serve and strong forehand, but the second serve and backhand both still need work and her power and flatter hitting are not well suited to success in Indian Wells.

Camila Giorgi Recent Form

Despite not having won since her first match of the year against Peyton Stearns, Giorgi shouldn’t be all that upset with her results. Three set losses to bigger servers and hitters like Victoria Azarenka and Clara Tauson aren’t the worst of losses, and Jelena Ostapenko is one of the more in-form players of the season.

Now with conditions a bit slower, she should be able to find a bit more success on return against Boulter, who does possess a strong serve, but is weak behind her second delivery and should have a lot of her pace eaten up by the courts.

Oddly enough, Giorgi has that Ostapenko-type game (just much less consistent) where she can hammer her groundstrokes through even the slowest of surfaces.

Big, aggressive, unrelenting forehands and backhands are the name of the game with the Italian veteran. I think those who cheer for her have been clamouring for years to try and find some semblance of consistency, but at this point, she is who she is.

That’s why she is almost exclusively someone to bet on when she’s an underdog. We know the talent is there, but we also know that with such a volatile game, we want to back her when we only need her to win around 30-35% of the time to make the wagers profitable ones.

Katie Boulter vs Camila Giorgi H2H – Stat of the Match

I’m actually quite surprised that these two haven’t met before. Perhaps it’s because Boulter is just now starting to play the bigger events on the tour schedule and Giorgi doesn’t play a very robust schedule.

I find it hard to try and statistically evaluate a volatile player like Giorgi as well, since match to match she can look dominant and then horrendous.

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SAFER GAMBLING

At bettingexpert, we always take a safe approach to gambling. We’ll never bet more than we can afford or chase losses. For more advice, head to our Safer Gambling hub.