Madison Keys vs Leylah Fernandez Prediction, Stats, Form, H2H, June 28th

Qualifying from Wimbledon is done and with a grand slam next week, Friday on the ATP & WTA tours are playing out semifinals instead of quarterfinals. What does that mean? It means less to choose from and as such, the rare women’s preview from me.

Let’s head to the Rothesay International in Eastbourne and look at Madison Keys vs Leylah Fernandez.

Fernandez’s win probability comes in at about 38%, while Keys is favoured to win at 1.53 odds. The handicap is three games and the total games line is 22.

Our Keys vs Fernandez prediction is for Keys to cover the games handicap.

Madison Keys vs Leylah Fernandez(Rothesay International) Prediction: Powerful American Disrespected by Handicap

• Prediction: Keys -3 Games
• Best Odds: 1.96
• Bookmaker: Pinnacle
• Stakes: 6/10

Odds as at 3:00 am UK Time on June 28th, 2024. Odds may now differ.

Though it may just be a feeling, it seems as though Keys simply plays a reduced schedule compared to many women on the pro circuit. This season, that’s for certain, since she didn’t begin due to an injury until March.

I almost wonder if that affects market prices, because she has one of the biggest games in women’s tennis and when she gets onto grass, I’d make the case that there are no more than a handful of players that can go toe-to-toe with her when she’s playing a half decent level.

She’s the defending champion here, she went to the quarterfinals at the All England Club last year and her lone loss on the surface in 2023 came to Aryna Sabalenka (one of the few that is likely better than her if both players are at their best).

She’s covered a three game handicap the vast majority of the time she wins on grass since the start of last season and that is a trend without context, but considering she’s playing Fernandez and not one of the top women in the game, I’m not too concerned about a huge challenge coming her way.

So why are we getting this number against a player who employs a style she normally dismisses without much resistance? Simply put, because the Canadian is balling out this week.

Fernandez has demolished both Ashlyn Krueger and Harriet Dart in her last two matches, and she needed three sets, but still won easily against Barbora Krejcikova. The last of those three is the best, but has been poor for months and the other two aren’t anywhere near the type of player that Keys is.

If this were -4 or -4.5 games at this price point, I’d consider passing. At -3 games? Not a chance. I’ll happily back one of the best grass players the WTA has to win by what could be just a one break of serve margin.

We have plenty more previews over on our expert insights page.

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Madison Keys Recent Form

The American is using this week’s title defence as her lone tuneup for Wimbledon and she’s once more reached the semifinal. The only thing she may complain about? The lack of court time. She had a bye through the first round and then one of her toughest opponents – who could’ve pushed her a bit – in Karolina Muchova withdrew with a wrist issue.

That means her lone match so far has come against Anhelina Kalinina, a contest she won in straight sets and by a margin of six games. I also think the lack of grass court play prior to the biggest tennis tournament in the world is beneficial to us as Keys bettors. Why is that? Well, the weeks before grand slam main draws, it can be tricky to gauge which players are looking to hoist trophies and which are just looking for a few matches and to bail, rest up and get their Wimbledon campaigns going.

With only one warmup match since last year’s Wimbledon on this surface and rankings points to defend, I think we can safely assume that Keys is going to be giving it her best shot on Friday. That allows us to avoid adjusting our numbers to account for a potential lack of motivation and go for a full staking on the bet.

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Leylah Fernandez Recent Form

Other than a quarterfinal in Doha, it had been a season of rough sledding for the 21-year-old from Canada’s second largest city.

This week has been big for her, with her ranking set to rise by at least five spots back into the top-25 on Monday.

Her 5-1 record on the grass is nice to see, but if we’re being honest, she lacks any real quality wins and her loss to Ajla Tomljanovic (who hasn’t played a whole lot in 2024) is a tad concerning. This is a big step up in competition, both in terms of ranking and in terms of talent, with Keys well ahead of Fernandez on serve and in terms of power from the baseline.

Now, these numbers aren’t filtered for quality of competition, but with Fernandez not having played anyone significant this year, I don’t think that these numbers are skewed in Keys’ favour by any means.

In the last year on grass courts at the main tour level, Keys has a hold percentage that is over 6% higher than Fernandez and her break percentage actually comes out ahead of Fernandez’s by about 1.3% as well.

That is a significant gap to overcome, especially against an opponent who typically thrives against the style Fernandez plays.

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Madison Keys vs Leylah Fernandez H2H – Stat of the Match

The only meeting between these two came back in 2021 at the French Open, with Keys winning by seven games in straight sets on the red clay.

It’s a better surface for the favourite, but Fernandez is also probably a better player than she was back in 2021 (though the results may not be as strong).

I’d still have this handicap set at at least four games if not a half game higher.

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