Pavel Kotov vs Albert Ramos Vinolas Prediction, Expert Picks, Odds, H2H, 4/25/24

The final preview of the day looks at the Pavel Kotov vs Albert Ramos Vinolas match from the ATP draw. Ramos Vinolas’ win probability is 43.5% while Kotov is favoured to win at 1.68 odds. The handicap is two games and the total games line is 22.5. Jon Reid’s Kotov vs Ramos Vinolas prediction is available below!

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Kotov vs Ramos Vinolas Prediction: Undervalued Kotov a Strong Bet on Thursday

• Prediction: Kotov to win
• Best Odds: 1.68
• Bookmaker: Pinnacle
• Stakes: 4/10

Odds as at 2:00 am UK Time on April 25th, 2024. Odds may now differ.

I’ll keep this one short and sweet. Ramos Vinolas is clearly on the decline, has very little in the way of attack and likely isn’t even one of the strongest players that can be found playing every week on the clay courts of the Challenger Tour.

Kotov may not be at the top of the game himself, but he’s on the ascent, plays a well-rounded game, has a much better serve and forehand, and can play across surfaces.

I still can’t figure out what has the market giving the veteran from Spain a 43.5% chance to come away with the win.

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Pavel Kotov Recent Form

Kotov may have come into the clay season in poor form with some poor losses where he almost looked disinterested in competing, but he had a strong week in Marrakech and was taken down from a set up by a Sebastian Ofner who finally found his best tennis in Barcelona.

Even in his string of hard court losses in recent months, he was playing top-100 competition and legitimate tour level players. I wouldn’t rate Ramos Vinolas as a tougher opponent than a single one of the players that beat him and I almost wonder if the market is punishing him for poor form without really acknowledging the quality of his competition.

Not only did he make the Marrakech semis again this year, but he put together a rather impressive clay season on the whole in 2023 as well.

Ramos Vinolas has far more experience on the dirt and is the more natural player on the surface, but again, it feels as though the market is simply unaware that Kotov is more than capable playing on the red stuff himself.

I certainly think he’s the better player in this match and without fatigue concerns or some secondary factor that should alter the prices in the match, I’m happy to back the Russian in this spot.

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Albert Ramos Vinolas Recent Form

Outside of a semifinal at the Murcia Challenger in late March, there has been very little positive to take away from Ramos Vinolas’ play this year.

He did come through qualifying to reach the main draw…but he beat two fellow veterans who have struggled in patches for the better part of the last year (Diego Schwartzman and Roberto Bautista Agut) and needed three sets in both matches to do it.

He’s underpowered, has started leaking a few more errors, and is just overpowered far too often. Even in the Challenger Tour’s visit to his home country’s capital, Ramos Vinolas managed to reach the quarterfinals but was eliminated by a flat hitter who despises playing on the clay in Mikhail Kukushkin (though the flatter hitters fare a little better in Madrid than at other venues thanks to the altitude and being able to keep points a bit shorter).

Lopsided defeats haven’t been uncommon when Ramos Vinolas has taken on the tour-level competition. Alexandre Muller, Stan Wawrinka, Jaume Munar, Francisco Cerundolo, and Federico Coria have all beaten him by at least five games and even Challenger guys like Felipe Meligeni Alves, Alejandro Moro Canas, and Nikoloz Basilashvili have piled on with easy wins.

His time on tour is running out and I don’t think it’s unreasonable to posit that his time as a pro tennis player on the whole is also nearing its end.

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Pavel Kotov vs Albert Ramos Vinolas H2H – Stat of the Match

No prior matches between these two to break down.

In the last year on clay courts when playing at the main tour level, Kotov’s hold plus break percentage is nearly 10 points better and he has a fair-sized lead when it comes to service points won plus return points won as well.

Those metrics would both suggest that Kotov should be a much larger favorite. Perhaps his penchant for letdown matches and unmotivated play at times is playing a role here, but if it is, it’s an outsized role in this pricing and I’m happy to take it on.

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