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The ATP side of the main draw from the Miami Open may not get underway until Wednesday, but qualifying still has to wrap up. It’s from that draw that we get our third preview of the day, with our Aleksandar Kovacevic vs Zizou Bergs prediction. We have a few more previews – from the WTA side of things – up over in our Expert Insights section, as a full month of Masters 1000 tennis continues. Bergs’ win probability is 49.3% while Kovacevic is favored to win at 1.81 odds. The handicap is one game and the total games line is 23.5.
Odds as at 4:00 am UK Time on March 19th, 2024. Odds may now differ.
The handicap for me on this matchup is a fairly simple one, with me having the Belgian as the favorite.
These two are both big servers and ball strikers, but Bergs is the more athletic of the two, the better returner in my eyes, and probably a bit more reliable from the backhand wing.
I don’t think either of these guys should be a big favorite, but I also don’t think this is as close to a coin flip as the prices have made it out to be.
It’s been a decent start to 2024 for the former NCAA tennis players. Kovacevic has established himself as a tour regular this season, having qualified and won a main draw match at a trio of events so far.
His serve and forehand have never been in question, but I think this is the first year that he’s managed to show enough of a well-rounded game to take that next step.
His one-handed backhand isn’t ideal for the modern game, but it isn’t the weakness it once was, either. I also think that his ability to get around the court has taken a step or two forward in the last season or so.
Bergs is a pretty good test for his level at the moment. I do think if he has one advantage in this match, it’s that Bergs is a tad more vulnerable in the hot and humid conditions, as he’s more prone to breaking down physically.
How Bergs has not yet reached the top 100 in his career is beyond me. Now 24 years old, he’s been “one to watch” for several years, with a slew of physical problems having kept him from making that breakthrough.
His game is easily strong enough to be ranked as one of the best 100 players in the game, however. He’s got the big serve to find cheap points and can hit from both wings, with an incredibly attacking game style.
His return statistics haven’t been that strong in his career (at least at the main tour level), but with his athleticism and shotmaking abilities, I’d make the case that he’s certainly got the ability to get there.
Currently just two spots off a career-high ranking and 14 spots off that elusive top-100 debut, this win would go a long way for the Belgian. He seems to have found his stride of late, reaching a semifinal indoors at a Challenger a few weeks ago and coming from a set down to put himself just a win away from the main draw.
The first meeting between these two. The American leads in the elo department by about 50 points.
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