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Bonus article for the opening day of action from Indian Wells.
We’ll look at the men’s draw and the match between Laslo Djere and Oscar Otte for our bonus play on Wednesday.
In this article:
March 8th, 19:00 (UK Time)
Betting on Djere on a hard court against a player like Otte – especially as a favourite – may seem counter-intuitive, but there are a few reasons I like the favourite in this one.
For starters, these courts being so slow most certainly favours Djere. He’s never been the greatest hard courter, but he’s picked up more wins in the last few years than the past on the surface and is certainly the much more consistent baseliner.
Secondly, Otte’s power will be somewhat neutralised on these courts and his lack of movement becomes a big liability as the points wear on. That isn’t an issue for Djere.
Third, there’s a particular matchup advantage I like for the Serbian. He doesn’t have the biggest game, but his best weapon on hard courts? His inside-out forehand, which would play right into the backhand of the big German. That is his biggest vulnerability.
Finally, Otte did not look good in either of his matches on slower hard courts in the last few weeks. He lost to a frustrated Yoshihito Nishioka and then lost to Jacopo Berrettini (a player outside of the top-500) in Acapulco. That second loss was also via retirement, bringing up questions regarding his health.
His already poor movement certainly can’t really afford to be hampered by a potential knee issue.
All things considered, not only do I think that Djere is a deserved favourite, I actually think he’s undervalued in this one.
He’s got more dimensions to his game, thrives by the slower courts, while his opponent’s game is hurt by them, and form and health both favour him as well.
Perhaps I’m digging too deep here, but the only thing going for Otte is the hard court. Almost nothing else points to him having a fun time on court on Wednesday.
Odds as at 1:30 am on March 8th, 2023. Odds may now differ.
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