tennis | Monday, March 6, 2023 12:04 PM (Revised at: Monday, March 6, 2023 1:19 PM)

Monday Tennis Best Bet: ATP Indian Wells, Leandro Riedi vs Alex Michelsen

Jon Reid

Leandro Riedi vs Alex Michelsen Best Bet: Monday, March 6th

Another nice match on Thursday from the men’s selections, as Sebastian Baez took care of business against a slumping Cristian Garin in straightforward fashion to cash both bets.

This week, it’s off to Indian Wells, where the courts differ greatly from traditional hard-court play (see Monday’s women’s article for a more in-depth breakdown on that).

For Monday’s selection from the ATP side of things, we’ll look at the qualifying match between Leandro Riedi and Alex Michelsen.

In this article:

Leandro Riedi vs Alex Michelsen Preview
Leandro Riedi vs Alex Michelsen Best Bet

Leandro Riedi vs Alex Michelsen Preview

March 7th, 1:00 (UK Time)

Excellent chance for the tennis world in this one to see if one of the more in-form players from the last four months at the Challenger Tour can translate his success to slower conditions against one of the United States’ better young prospects.

After a slump in the fall of last year, Riedi managed to go on a 12-match win streak to end his season that saw him capture a pair of Challenger Tour titles indoors (as a qualifier in Helsinki and then in Andria). He followed that up with another four victories to open his account in 2023 down under in the Australian capital of Canberra at a Challenger event.

The key to almost all his success, however? Using that monster first serve and big, flat forehand to win a high percentage of points on serve and really put pressure on his opposition to do the same.

While his return game has certainly improved, there are still questions about his endurance and lower net clearance (he doesn’t leave much room for error on many of his groundstrokes) in how his success will translate to the slower conditions found in Indian Wells.

As for Michelsen, the California native has a nice, big game of his own to ensure he won’t be pushed around in baseline exchanges by Riedi, and he’s also found a nice patch of form of late.

While his loss in Waco, Texas last week was disappointing, he has reached the final and semifinal in his last two events at Challenger level and is certainly deserving of a spot in this qualifying draw.

While he hasn’t played a ton in slower conditions professionally either, I do trust his variety and movement a bit more than his Swiss opponent’s here and considering Riedi’s dearth of success in slower conditions, it’s certainly not going to be something that hurts only him in this matchup.

Leandro Riedi vs Alex Michelsen Best Bet

I’m happy to back the young American to keep things close here and even get the win.

I think the fact that most of the betting market isn’t yet familiar with Michelsen gives us a bit of an edge here, as well as the fact that many will see Riedi’s success on hard courts in recent months and neglect to take into consideration the fact that he hasn’t played very well historically on slower courts and his style doesn’t suit them all that well.

For me, Michelsen to win is the play, as well as the games to go over the total, in case the last few weeks wear on Michelsen as the match wears on and he’s unable to grind out a third-set win.