Leylah Fernandez vs Yue Yuan Prediction, Picks, Odds, H2H, Stats - 8/13/24

Leylah Fernandez will be the heavy favorite on Tuesday against Yue Yuan as the two face off in the first round of the Cincinnati Open. EJ Garr’s Leylah Fernandez vs Yue Yuan prediction features odds at -108 expecting a closer battle than the line setters want you to believe.

This Section 3 clash shows the Canadian native with odds above -300 to advance in this WTA1000 event in Ohio after a disappointing trip to Toronto.

Similarly to Fernandez, Yue Yuan was bounced out of Toronto with only one win before being sent home by Aryna Sabalenka, and the China native faces an uphill battle as a +250 underdog. 

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Leylah Fernandez vs Yue Yuan Prediction: Closer Than The Experts Think

• Prediction: Yue Yuan +4.5 Games Handicap
• Best Odds: -108
• Bookmaker: Pinnacle
• Stakes: 3/10

Odds updated at 7:00 am UK Time on August 13, 2024. 

An expression Lee Corso uses on College Gameday finds him stating “I expect a closer match than the experts think” when he likes an underdog to show up and cover the chalk. 

That thought came to mind when I saw Fernandez listed at -310 to win this match knowing I was pocketing some games. Pinnacle lists the odds at -108 on the +4.5 handicap, and if you need some fluff for a parlay the +5 is juiced at -135 on Yuan to hang around.

While Yuan’s trip to Toronto ended with a loss to Sabalenka in the second round, Leylah was back in Canada and heavily favored to get past Ashlyn Krueger and flopped hard in straight sets. A second-round appearance was all Fernandez could muster in Toronto and the 25th-ranked Canadian has only reached two quarterfinals this campaign. The run to the Eastbourne final at the end of June seems like a blur as early exits in three straight events won’t provide any confidence.

Yue Yuan is ranked 42nd on the WTA Tour for one reason and that is because of hardcourts. Take Yue off this surface and I will fade the Chinese native in a blink of an eye on grass or clay.

Yuan reeled off 9 straight wins between the title run at Austin and the quarterfinal appearance at Indian Wells in March. Yuan has confidence in hardcourts and I expect this to be a tight match with Yuan covering the +4.5 Handicap. 

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LEYLAH FERNANDEZ RECENT FORM

Other than runs at Dubai and Eastbourne, Leylah Fernandez hasn’t put a run of three wins together in any tournament this season. 

Leylah won two matches at the Olympics with the win over Muchova being the more impressive victory of the two but the second-round exit and then a quick exit at Toronto puts pressure on the Canadian.

That pressure as a -310 favorite is also not comforting because that just puts more expectations on Fernandez that she doesn’t need on her right now.

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YUE YUAN RECENT FORM

Yue Yuan enjoyed one win at the Olympics against Ekaterina Alexandrova but Maria Sakkari embarrassed the China native at 2 & 1 and the fun in Paris was over. 

Yuan didn’t struggle with Cristina Bucsa in the first round at Toronto and Yuan could only take 4 games from Sabalenka to leave Canada early.

Yuan is 18 – 8 on hardcourts this season and the only surface that Yue carries a winning record in 2024. (3 – 6 Clay, 2 – 4 Grass)

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FERNANDEZ VS YUAN H2H –  STAT OF THE MATCH

This is the first meeting between Leylah Fernandez and Yue Yuan on any surface.

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