tennis | Monday, January 9, 2023 9:22 AM

Monday Bonus Tennis Best Bet: ATP Australian Open Qualifying, Li Tu vs Jozef Kovalik

Jon Reid

Li Tu vs Jozef Kovalik Best Bet: Monday, January 9th

The first grand slam of the year has arrived, and after seeing little to no value on the board one day last week, we’ve got a bonus play from the qualifying event for Monday night’s action!

For Monday’s bonus article from Melbourne Park, we’ll break down the matchup between Aussie Li Tu and Jozef Kovalik.

In this article:

Li Tu vs Jozef Kovalik Preview
Li Tu vs Jozef Kovalik Best Bet

Li Tu vs Jozef Kovalik Preview

January 10th, TBD (UK Time)

What a great story Tu has been to this point in his career. After an incredibly promising junior career and a spell of injuries, the now-26-year-old elected to give up on his professional aspirations and begin a career in coaching. After over five years away from the sport, he elected to try his hand at some UTR Pro Series events after the COVID pause, and now he’s made his way inside the top-250 in the world rankings.

His game is ultra-consistent from the baseline, and while he doesn’t possess much power, he’s incredibly intelligent in his gameplay and knows when to be aggressive in his approach. Far more comfortable on hard courts (as most Aussies tend to be), he should have a surface advantage in this matchup as well.

Kovalik, while not a dyed-in-the-wool clay courter, is certainly more dangerous on the red dirt. The Slovakian can be tricky on hard courts as well, but it’s been clear throughout his career, he thrives far more in slower conditions (all 12 of his Challenger Tour career finals have come on the dirt).

I don’t necessarily think Tu should be a 2:1 favourite in this one (1.50 in terms of odds), but I can’t let an even money price pass by in this spot.

Li Tu vs Jozef Kovalik Best Bet

If one wants to look at narrative spots, look no further than an Australian with an inspiring story playing on home soil with crowd support.

That shouldn’t be needed to find value here though, with the surface edge, yet also being able to match the consistency of his more clay-oriented opposition. With Kovalik having gone six years without a winning record on hard courts (in outdoor settings), I’ll take Li Tu in a spot where one only needs a 50% win rate to break even any day of the week.