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Mixed martial arts Monday Tennis Best Bet: ATP Challenger Madrid, Lorenzo Giustino vs Omar Jasika
Lorenzo Giustino vs Omar Jasika Best Bet: Monday, April 10th
Tamara Zidansek falls in three sets on Friday to Peyton Stearns as her ability to dictate points appears to be severely deteriorating, even at altitude, in her mid-20s. Not a great sign for the Slovenian.
This week, the WTA Tour is off, as the Billie Jean King Cup takes over (an event run by the ITF, not the WTA). Unfortunately, that isn’t until the weekend, and so we’ll look to the ATP Challenger Tour this week for our second selections.
There are a quartet of Challenger tournaments this week, so there should be plenty to choose from each day.
For Monday, let’s check out the match between Lorenzo Giustino and Omar Jasika from Madrid.
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Lorenzo Giustino vs Omar Jasika Preview
April 10th, 13:30 (UK Time)
Really surprised to see the Italian as a relatively slight favourite heading into this match. Not necessarily because he’s been lights out on clay over the course of the past year or so, but because his opponent, Jasika, has been dreadful of late and has never been accused of being a competent clay courter.
The Australian has yet to win a match in 2023 above the ITF Tour level (the lowest level of the professional game), and Monday represents his first ever main draw match on clay in a Challenger Tour tournament.
Needless to say, this is going to be a bet against the Aussie to do real damage in this one.
At 31 years old, Giustino isn’t some up-and-coming prospect, and he hasn’t been the most successful player out there over the last few years, but he’s still won hundreds of professional matches on clay in his career, is far more natural on the surface and has been in better form during the 2023 season – even on hard courts, a surface that would favour him less than his counterpart in this one.
The only thing that could potentially help Jasika in Madrid is the fact that the Spanish capital is about 650 metres above sea level.
That may help him find a few more holds behind his serve, but that would require him serving far more proficiently than he has been to this point on the year.
His first serve points won have been rather uninspiring and his win rate behind his second delivery sits below 45% at the moment – a figure that could get much worse on a slower surface that he isn’t as comfortable playing on.
Lorenzo Giustino vs Omar Jasika Best Bet
I’m not sure why the price point in this range, but I have Giustino winning this matchup just under 70% of the time. That would put my true number in the 1.45 area, which means we’re seeing some decent value in this spot.
I also have this handicap at -4 games on clay, with that coming down to -3.5 in altitude. With the number currently at -2.5, I think that’s a decent bet as well if you’re looking to take on more risk for higher odds.
- Selection: Giustino to win
- Best Odds: 1.62 (Pinnacle)
- Stakes: 4/10
- Bonus: Giustino -2.5 games at 1.91 with Bet365, using 2/10 stakes.
Odds as at 3:30 am on April 10th, 2023. Odds may now differ.
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