Lorenzo Musetti vs Brandon Nakashima Prediction, Stats, Form, H2H, June 20th

The second ATP preview of the day comes on the heels of the first at the Cinch Championships, as we look at Lorenzo Musetti vs Brandon Nakashima to close out the singles action for the second round of play. Our Musetti vs Nakashima prediction at 2.03 odds is available below.

Nakashima’s win probability is just under 50%, while Musetti is favored to win at 1.88 odds. The handicap is 0.5 games and the total games line is 24.

Lorenzo Musetti vs Brandon Nakashima Prediction: Back American in Close Tilt

• Prediction: Nakashima to win
• Best Odds: 2.03
• Bookmaker: Pinnacle
• Stakes: 3/10

Odds updated on June 20th 2024. 

I’m not sure how Nakashima is a slight dog or just a 50% chance to win this match on a quick court with a lower bounce.

This feels like a kind of reputation kind of price, with Musetti’s form also influencing the probabilities. The problem for me is that Musetti still seems a bit out of his depth on quicker courts. He didn’t have much success down under in January and you may be yelling at your screen that he’s begun the grass season in Stuttgart and Halle with a 4-1 record and that means he’s playing well, but I’d disagree when looking at how he’s gotten to this point.

For starters, the one loss he suffered was a beatdown against a decent quick courter in Matteo Berrettini. Now, Nakashima is no Berrettini, but he certainly has the surface edge here and I’d favor him against Musetti on grass any day.

Secondly, one of Musetti’s wins came against a young gun who struggles on return in a pair of 11-9 coin flip-style tiebreaks. Another saw him lose the first set and get a retirement from his opponent in the third and his first-round win against Alex de Minaur was from 1-6 down with the Aussie having played a long week.

Musetti doesn’t have more power, he doesn’t come close to having the surface advantage and most importantly, he lacks the thing that troubled Nakashima most – major power or heavy hitting from the baseline.

Without the ability to push the American back behind the baseline, I think Musetti will be in trouble. Throw in the fact that his serve isn’t all that strong and that’s another weakness of Nakashima’s (his return game) that the Italian should struggle to exploit. Our Musetti vs Nakashima prediction is for Nakashima to win.

Check out the expert insights section for another tennis preview at the Queen’s Club on Thursday.

Lorenzo Musetti Recent Form

Went over Musetti’s form a bit above in the handicap, with a lot of the success appearing to be more of a mirage for me than anything.

The bounce isn’t ideal for him, nor are the court speeds and I don’t think he has the requisite game to exploit his opponent’s vulnerabilities in this one. He had plenty of wins a year ago on the grass, but once one puts them into context, it looks eerily similar to what he’s done this year.

I’ll take the better grass courter and more natural quick surface player who is playing decent tennis in this spot.

Brandon Nakashima Recent Form

Last year’s grasscourt campaign went in a very similar direction to his 2023 season as a whole. The 22-year-old won just one match and lost four a year after making the quarterfinals in ‘s-Hertogenbosch and then the second week at Wimbledon.

This season looks more like 2022 than 2023 though, with the world No. 63 climbing back up the rankings and reaching the semis in Surbiton at a Challenger and then the same round in Stuttgart.

Now I have to be fair. I critiqued Musetti for some good fortune along the way, and Nakashima has also had his fair share of good luck as well. He won via retirement from a set down as well, received a walkover, and even saved match points in a three-set win in his first match at that Challenger.

I trust him more though simply because his game fits grass courts far more than Musetti’s and those who have beaten him have fit the profile of players that give him trouble in general; big hitters who can push him around from the baseline and win cheap points against him with regularity on serve.

Lorenzo Musetti vs Brandon Nakashima H2H – Stat of the Match

These two have yet to meet and will get their head-to-head series started on Thursday in London.

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