tennis | Friday, February 17, 2023 8:17 AM (Revised at: Friday, February 17, 2023 8:18 AM)

Friday Tennis Best Bet: ATP Buenos Aires, Lorenzo Musetti vs Juan Pablo Varillas

Jon Reid

Lorenzo Musetti vs Juan Pablo Varillas Best Bet: Friday, February 17th

First loss of the week for us on Thursday in Buenos Aires, as Dominic Thiem played some rather uninspired tennis against Juan Pablo Varillas. If we could take weeks like these every week, however, we most certainly would!

Onto Friday, where the quarterfinals are taking place at all three ATP events. For our final men’s selection of the week we’ll once again look into the match featuring Varillas, as he takes on one of the pre-tournament favourites in Lorenzo Musetti.

In this article:

Lorenzo Musetti vs Juan Pablo Varillas Preview
Lorenzo Musetti vs Juan Pablo Varillas Best Bet

Lorenzo Musetti vs Juan Pablo Varillas Preview

February 17th, 18:00 (UK Time)

Not pick on Varillas, but this is another spot where I think he’s a tad overvalued on clay courts. Thursday I thought the fair handicap was about four games against a strong clay courter still trying to build his game back up. This match is four games on the handicap, but he’s playing a young gun at the top of his game and who is already one of the better clay-court players you’ll see in these 250-level events.

I was a little concerned about not having seen Musetti play yet on clay this season and coming off potentially having shoulder issues entering his last match (a loss in Australia to Lloyd Harris who was put in a terrible position from travelling). He was absolutely lights out against Pedro Cachin on Thursday, however. One can’t assume that he will replicate his level on Friday, but knowing he’s capable of it alleviates nearly all of the potential injury and rust concerns.

His forehand – especially the inside-out forehands – was incredible in his second rounder, able to hit with pace, pull Cachin all over the court, finish points and there was dynamism to it with spin and his ability to create angles.

The one-handed backhand was smooth as well, and while he may not be able to dictate with it or generate many winners from that wing, it is sturdy and that’s all he needs it to be.

Considering his form in this one, I’m happy to back him as he takes on yet another really strong Challenger Tour-level guy who hasn’t quite made it at the main tour level just yet.

Lorenzo Musetti vs Juan Pablo Varillas Best Bet

The metrics love Musetti as well. He possesses a top-10 clay-court elo and even when using the blended elo to evaluate individual matchups, that is a top-15 number. The Peruvian amasses nearly all his wins on clay courts, but doesn’t really play top-level competition, and that’s reflected in the fact that Musetti has an advantage of over 200 points in the elo department.

As for the hold plus break percentages, Musetti leads by about 10% on clay when controlling for those played above the Challenger level, despite probably facing tougher competition on a regular basis.

With the slower surface here making breaks of serve more common, I have this handicap at five games. I’m happy to play it at four and even think it’s a smart play to have a go at the -4.5-game handicap as well.