tennis | Tuesday, April 11, 2023 8:46 AM

Tuesday Tennis Best Bet: ATP Monte Carlo, Luca Nardi vs Valentin Vacherot

Jon Reid

Luca Nardi vs Valentin Vacherot Best Bet: Tuesday, April 11th

A nice win on Monday with Ivan Gakhov, who wasn’t all that dominant, but was steadier throughout and looked more at home on the clay, which was enough to bring home that bet in three sets.

For Tuesday in Monte Carlo, let’s preview the matchup between Luca Nardi and Valentin Vacherot.

In this article:

Luca Nardi vs Valentin Vacherot Preview
Luca Nardi vs Valentin Vacherot Best Bet

Luca Nardi vs Valentin Vacherot Preview

April 11th, 11:30 (UK Time)

What a match for the main draw of a Masters 1000. Neither of these guys is in the top-150, but I wouldn’t sleep on Nardi.

Vacherot is a different story. Being from Monaco, he received a wild card into the event, so that explains his presence. Nardi, however, may be a Challenger Tour calibre player, but he’s talented and earned his way into the main draw by going through the qualifying and beating a pair of tour-level regulars.

While both of these men have Challenger Tour titles, the Monegasque did so against a relatively weak field last season in Thailand, while Nardi has won a trio, but against much tougher competition.

The 19-year-old Italian is also the player with the much higher ceiling, is more athletic and better on return. He also has much more surface versatility to his game and can adapt to slow courts – something his opponent in this one hasn’t shown the ability to do yet in his career.

Nardi is a heavy favourite (and deservedly so) when it comes to betting on who will win the match, but I’m not sure the handicap has gone quite far enough in assessing how much better he is.

Luca Nardi vs Valentin Vacherot Best Bet

With Nardi being the better player in this one, the question becomes why is the -4.5 games not enough.

For starters, I don’t think the market has priced in just how large of a gulf there is between these two on clay courts.

Outside of San Marino (which is played at altitude and helps Vacherot’s service-oriented game), we haven’t seen Vacherot do much of anything on clay at the Challenger level.

We’ve seen him lose this season to the perennially-injured and lowly-ranked Jeremy Jahn and then lose by six games against an ITF-level player (though talented) Edoardo Lavagno.

I have this closer to -5 or -5.5 games, so am more than happy to back the talented Italian youngster at -4.5 games here at a price over evens.