Mackenzie McDonald vs James Duckworth Prediction, Picks, Odds, H2H, August 5th

The first preview of the new week comes from the ATP Masters event in Montreal, as we look at Mackenzie McDonald vs James Duckworth in qualifying action from the National Bank Open.

Duckworth’s win probability is right around 40%, while McDonald is favored to win at 1.53 odds. The handicap is 2.5 games and the total games line is 22.5.

Our McDonald vs Duckworth prediction is for Duckworth to win.

Mackenzie McDonald Prediction: Trust Australian Veteran in Hard Court Tilt

• Prediction: Duckworth to win
• Best Odds: 2.53
• Bookmaker: Pinnacle
• Stakes: 3/10

Odds updated at 4:30 am UK Time on August 5th, 2024.

It’s been a down season for McDonald, who did well to beat the serve-oriented Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard in the opening round, but I’m not convinced he’s up to the task to pick up another good qualifying win on Monday.

Duckworth is a quick-court specialist, with a decent serve and the ability to ping his flatter groundstrokes to the outer thirds of the court and cause upsets in these conditions.

Though McDonald also prefers quicker conditions, I just don’t think he has the offensive abilities the Aussie does. He won’t be able to exploit a complete lack of mobility around the court from his opponent as he did on Sunday.

If McDonald had put up some impressive wins on hard courts or in quicker conditions this year I might be more hesitant, but I can’t see why he deserves to be a clear favorite against someone that has a bit more pop to their game, has played better tennis this season and likes the same surface and conditions as he does.

More previews are available on the expert insights page.

Mackenzie McDonald Recent Form

A win on Monday for McDonald would mark just the second time in 2024 that he’s won consecutive matches.

The other was in Newport on the grass a few weeks back. It has been a trying year for the former UCLA Bruin, who has blown leads and committed far too many unforced errors for a player that doesn’t generate a lot of offense.

He’ll likely need a similar day on serve to triumph again in the final qualifying round, but the problem is that he isn’t playing a poor returner as he did in his first qualifying match. Not to mention, McDonald may not have been broken in that first contest, but he had to save 17 break points to remain unbroken. That is an astonishing number that I haven’t seen before.

James Duckworth Recent Form

We went over a bit of Duckworth’s form last week when we backed him as a heavy underdog against a different American in Reilly Opelka. After winning the first set, he ended up being unable to come through. I still believe he was undervalued at odds in the 3.00 range though, and I think the same here.

McDonald doesn’t have the form of Opelka, despite his countryman barely having played this year, and he certainly doesn’t have the cannon of a first serve that the big man possesses.

As for Duckworth, he parlayed some decent runs on quicker hard courts on the Challenger Tour during the Asian swing into success on grass courts leading up to Wimbledon.

Duckworth only beat a clay specialist in the opening round, but the key to that match was that the handicap was only 3.5 games, despite the sizable surface and service advantages the 32-year-old had. That, along with last week’s odds being off, tells me that the market values Duckworth in these conditions much less than I do, and I’m content continuing to back him.

Mackenzie McDonald vs James Duckworth H2H – Stat of the Match

The only indicator going McDonald’s way is the prior matchup between these two that saw him win 6-3, 6-3. The issue with that is two-fold. First, it was a match three years ago. Hardly pertinent to a match in 2024. Second, it was at Indian Wells – a venue with what may be the slowest hard courts on the ATP circuit. Not comparable.

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