Magdalena Frech vs Lucia Bronzetti Prediction, Stats, Form, H2H, March 7th 2024

With our favourite bet of the opening round over in the men’s draw, let’s take a look at one of my favourite bets in the WTA draw from the BNP Paribas Open. Our Magdalena Frech vs Lucia Bronzetti Prediction at 2.50 odds is available in the article below. 

It’s an unheralded contest that may not be all that appealing to a casual fan, but as bettors, these kinds of matches present excellent chances to capitalise on poor pricing in the betting markets.

Bronzetti’s win probability is just 40% while Frech is favoured to win at 1.59 odds. The handicap is three games and the total games line is 21.

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In this article:

• Magdalena Frech vs Lucia Bronzetti Prediction
• Magdalena Frech Recent Form
• Lucia Bronzetti Recent Form
• Magdalena Frech vs Lucia Bronzetti H2H Stat of the Match
• Safer Gambling

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Magdalena Frech vs Lucia Bronzetti Prediction: Bronzetti takes Advantage of Slower Conditions 

• Prediction: Bronzetti to win
• Best Odds: 2.50
• Bookmaker: Pinnacle
• Stakes: 3/10

Odds as at 1:15 am UK Time on March 7th, 2024. Odds may now differ.

There are very few players that the market prices up that puzzle me more than Bronzetti. One week, I’m dead set on opposing her in the markets, the next, I’m seeing a fair amount of value in backing her.

This week, I believe given the conditions, her game and her opponent’s preference, we’re getting a lovely price to bet on the Italian.

She has the clay court mentality to play long rallies and not give in to mistakes, she can still hit through the forehand and she’s become a lot more competent than she was a year or two ago when it comes to playing on hard courts in general. Making her a clear underdog to someone who prefers quick courts and whose primary strengths are both best on quicker courts is a bit disrespectful.

Read on for more expert insights.

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Magdalena Frech Recent Form

Frech has started out her season pretty impressively, with at least two wins in Hobart, Melbourne, Doha and Dubai. She did lose her first match in San Diego last week, but all in all, it’s been what can only be seen as a satisfying opening quarter to 2024.

Now, with a game that relies on a pretty decent first serve and the ability to hit effective slices that stay low to the ground, higher bouncing, slow hard courts aren’t exactly her best friend.

She’s actually lost in qualifying each of the last two years here (yet somehow made the second round, thanks to being a lucky loser both times) and has been beaten fairly comprehensively in her four losses (again, two losses per appearance, thanks to being given a second chance each time).

Now, she’s played some tougher competition, but even if Bronzetti isn’t near the top of the women’s game, she does play a style that is well suited to hard courts, and as such, may still present problems for the Pole.

Lucia Bronzetti Recent Form

Just 5-10 to start the year, Bronzetti has struggled in the quicker-court tournaments that permeate the early season schedule.

That said, she’s been tasked with some top players (Aryna Sabalenka, Anastasia Potapova and Elise Mertens) or tough young players with big power that works well in quicker environs (Ashlyn Krueger – who she also beat earlier in the year) and I think that’s played a role in her struggles.

Against players closer to Frech’s tier, she’s led by a set against Laura Siegemund and really pushed Yafan Wang (who I’d make the case is actually a stronger player than Frech at this point). In certain spots, like that contest against Wang, I’ve found the market to be a little too high on her. In spots like this, when everything is taken into account, I find the feisty Italian to be undervalued.

Magdalena Frech vs Lucia Bronzetti H2H – Stat of the Match

We haven’t seen these two square off yet at the professional level. Bronzetti has been around now for the better part of a year and Frech does play her fair share of WTA 250 tournaments as well, so that is somewhat of a surprise.

I knew that Frech – as a natural hard courter – would have a higher elo rating (after all, it’s likely the statistical edge that has led people to price the match up this way), but I’m actually reassured that the blended hard court advantage is under 100 points for the 26-year-old. As long as it wasn’t too lopsided, I was going to be content, seeing as the slower conditions really make me take any hard court-based data with a grain of salt. With the courts being a great equaliser for the world No. 53, I think 2.50 odds present nice value.

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SAFER GAMBLING

At bettingexpert, we always take a safe approach to gambling. We’ll never bet more than we can afford or chase losses. For more advice, head to our Safer Gambling hub.