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tennis | Thursday, March 9, 2023 9:54 AM

Thursday Tennis Best Bet: ATP Indian Wells, Marc Andrea Huesler vs Pedro Martinez

Thursday Tennis Best Bet: ATP Indian Wells, Marc Andrea Huesler vs Pedro Martinez
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Marc Andrea Huesler vs Pedro Martinez Best Bet: Thursday, March 9th

We split the two larger plays on Wednesday, but they come out to a slight loss, as both men were favourites. Plan came together with Marcos Giron against Aleksandar Kovacevic, but Laslo Djere committed too many errors trying to put away points against Oscar Otte and picked up a back issue in the second set to sink that selection.

Another jam-packed day on Thursday, as the opening round concludes from California. For our men’s selection, we’re going to take a look at the match between two players struggling for form in Marc Andrea Huesler and Pedro Martinez.

In this article:

Marc Andrea Huesler vs Pedro Martinez Preview

Thu, March 9th, 22:00 (UK Time)

I’m not going to lie to you guys. The bets on this match are most certainly going to fall into the “hold your nose when hitting submit” category.

Martinez has struggled for wins since July and Huesler has been dreadful of late in quicker conditions (his preference). Not sure how the Swiss plans to snap his funk in conditions that don’t suit him and that could lead to more errors.

Martinez is coming off a pair of lopsided losses down in South America on clay and outside of Pune in January (where the field was rather weak), he hasn’t managed to string together two consecutive victories since the fall.

Nevertheless, it’s odd seeing him as a fairly sizable underdog in this position.

His game style should fare much better on slower courts, and as mentioned, it’s not like his form is a major disadvantage at the minute, considering just how poor Huesler has been since the Davis Cup weekend in early February.

His flat hitting is not rewarded by the high bounces here, nor the speed of the court. His movement is worse, and other than his first serve, there isn’t much to like about his game more than Martinez’s.

This feels like a match where the game plan is to either land an incredibly high percentage of first serves or follow your serves into the net to try and shorten points and avoid getting into longer rallies that favour your opponent more and more as the points extend.

The problem there? His footwork isn’t the best on approach and his net game isn’t bad, but it’s certainly not where it should be for someone of his height and with his first serve. He does tend to employ the serve-and-volley approach here and there. He should be better at the net by now.

Marc Andrea Huesler vs Pedro Martinez Best Bet

This is the type of matchup we’re going to look to exploit throughout the month of March.

The data and common knowledge is that Huesler is the better hard-court player. That doesn’t take into account that the court speeds are crucial to his results and Indian Wells plays at the polar opposite end of the spectrum to where he’s traditionally found success.

As a result, we’re seeing a massive overvaluation for this specific matchup, and I’m happy to jump on the other side – even if it means backing someone that has played as poorly of late as the Spaniard.

He’s much more suited to grind out lengthy points and matches from the baseline and plays with more spin, which should be rewarded on higher bouncing courts.

I have him as the slightest of underdogs, giving us plenty of value to attack here. The +1.5 sets market is also intriguing. Not only because Martinez has a strong chance to win the match, but also because the flatter hitting of Huesler also means he produces spells of unforced errors, as well as purple patches when his shots are landing.

That inconsistency within the match lends itself well to blowing a set, even if one wins the match.

  • Selection: Martinez +1.5 sets
  • Best Odds: 1.74 (Pinnacle)
  • Stakes: 5/10
  • Bonus: Martinez to win at 2.77 odds with Pinnacle, using 3/10 stakes

Odds as at 1:30 am on March 9th, 2023. Odds may now differ.

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