tennis | Wednesday, March 8, 2023 8:38 AM (Revised at: Wednesday, March 8, 2023 1:01 PM)

Wednesday Tennis Best Bet: ATP Indian Wells, Marcos Giron vs Aleksandar Kovacevic

Jon Reid

Marcos Giron vs Aleksandar Kovacevic Best Bet: Wednesday, March 8th

Well, the women’s selection voids instead of winning from match point up, and our men’s selection loses from match points up in the 3rd set as Juncheng Shang falls to Zhizhen Zhang. Tough luck on Tuesday!

Time for the main draw from the desert, and our first preview on the ATP side of things will be the match that opens up the tournament on Stadium 1 – the tournament’s main court.

It’ll be a pair of Americans squaring off, as Marcos Giron goes up against Aleksandar Kovacevic.

In this article:

Marcos Giron vs Aleksandar Kovacevic Preview
Marcos Giron vs Aleksandar Kovacevic Best Bet

Marcos Giron vs Aleksandar Kovacevic Preview

March 8th, 19:00 (UK Time)

A fun matchup between two different styles of play and two guys that took the collegiate route and played NCAA tennis in the United States.

The younger of the two in Kovacevic is the bigger server and hitter of the two and is far more likely to be on the front foot looking to dictate from baseline more often than not.

He is also far less consistent, and his backhand wing is more of a liability than Giron’s.

Kovacevic may have a better record on the season to this point than his countryman, but he’s amassed some of those wins at the lower Challenger Tour level, and the vast majority of events prior to this week have been played on quicker courts.

That’s an important note, just because the courts here play so slowly, that experience and the ability to construct points, avoid committing unforced errors and outlast your opponent are key.

Giron may also prefer quicker courts in general, but he’s got the edge in all of the things I just mentioned. He’s played this event regularly for years, whereas Kovacevic has one match here – a lopsided qualifying loss in 2021 to Emilio Gomez. Giron is also a much more solid player from the baseline and more likely to grind out matches without getting too impatient.

Kovacevic is more reliant on his serve and forehand to find him cheap points. This venue may be one of the worst hard-court events for that on tour.

Marcos Giron vs Aleksandar Kovacevic Best Bet

I understand why many people will want to bet on Kovacevic and why the price point is somewhat close.

The University of Illinois alum has been in the best form we’ve seen, has finally won consistently and has made his one-handed backhand slightly less vulnerable.

That said, this is still a price that takes hard-court statistics into account, without realising that this event is rather unique in how slow the courts are and that season-long hold plus break percentages and elo ratings can be deceiving.

I’ll stake out a rather large position on backing Giron here, as I have him priced closer to the 1.47-1.50 range.