Matteo Berrettini vs Felix Auger Aliassime Prediction, Picks, Odds, H2H, July 19th

Our first preview for Friday on the ATP Tour comes from the EFG Swiss Open in Gstaad in a fairly marquee Matteo Berrettini vs Felix Auger Aliassime matchup.

Auger Aliassime’s win probability is around 45%, while Berrettini is favoured to win at 1.67 odds. The handicap is two games and the total games line is 23.

Our Berrettini vs Auger Aliassime prediction is for Berrettini to win.

Matteo Berrettini vs Felix Auger Aliassime Prediction: Berrettini’s Solidity Separates Him From Canadian Foe

• Prediction: Berrettini to win
• Best Odds: 1.67
• Bookmaker: bet365
• Stakes: 2/10

Odds updated at 2:30 am UK Time on July 19th, 2024. 

Normally in quicker conditions at altitude in a match between big servers, I’d lean towards the match being a fairly close one and thus, the underdog being the value.

In this spot, however, I think there are a few things that lead me to betting the slight favourite. First, Berrettini can match and outclass Auger Aliassime’s strengths. He’s got the bigger serve and more powerful forehand.

The bigger thing though? The ability to reign in errors from the baseline. Auger Aliassime is the far more error prone player of the two, and that can be tough in a matchup where being broken once can cost you the set.

Auger Aliassime’s mistakes when he’s in control of points on serve allow opponents to apply unnecessary pressure to his serve. With Berrettini not likely to gift as many points, I think it makes the Italian far more likely to break serve in a match where breaks could be at a premium.

Finally, the backhand slice for Berrettini may not be as effective on clay as on grass, but it is another shot that doesn’t make many mistakes. Contrast that with the Canadian’s leaky backhand and it’s another potential exploit for the former world No. 6.

More tennis previews on the expert insights page.

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Matteo Berrettini Recent Form

He hasn’t played much this year, but when he has, Berrettini has made deep runs fairly consistently. A final at the 175-point Phoenix Challenger, the title in Marrakech (a site with a bit of altitude to speed things up), the final in Stuttgart (another venue at elevation) and now another quarterfinal this week.

There have been a few losses in matches trying to back up the long weeks, but other than that, it’s been close losses to Marcos Giron. world No. 1 Jannik Sinner or the ultra talented Jack Draper.

His serve and forehand alone make him a menace to deal with across surfaces, but his backhand slice helps him neutralise opponent’s front foot tennis and gives him a chance to take control of baseline exchanges.

I like him to keep rolling along in this one.

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Felix Auger Aliassime Recent Form

Outside of a lucky run to the Madrid final earlier this year and a second week at the French Open, it’s been a pretty poor year for the Montreal native.

His game is pretty impressive, but he gets lost in being too passive at times and at others he can’t seem to keep the ball in play.

If he can ever get the balance figured out, I do think he has real potential to challenge the biggest players. Until then, I think he remains a talented player destined to hang around the top-30, but won’t really push to the upper echelons of the game.

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Matteo Berrettini vs Felix Auger Aliassime H2H – Stat of the Match

Auger Aliassime beat Berrettini last year on quick hard courts from a set down in Cincinnati and other than that, they haven’t played a whole lot in recent years.

When at his best, Berrettini did win two of the three matches between them at the professional level.

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