Matteo Berrettini vs James Duckworth Prediction, Picks, Odds, H2H, June 14th

Final previews of the week and we start at the Boss Open from Stuttgart with Matteo Berrettini vs James Duckworth. Our Berrettini vs Duckworth prediction is available below. 

Duckworth’s win probability is down below 25%, while Berrettini is favored to win at 1.25 odds. The handicap is 3.5 games and the total games line is 22.5.

Berrettini vs Duckworth Prediction: Berrettini Continues to Be Overvalued on Quick Grass Courts

• Predictions: Over 22.5 Games
• Best Odds: 1.89
• Bookmaker: Pinnacle
• Stakes: 2/10

Odds as at 1:45 am UK Time on June 14th, 2024. Odds may now differ.

Though Shapovalov double-faulted and overcooked forehands several times to break himself on Thursday, the fact remains that Berrettini simply doesn’t have the return game to justify these kinds of probabilities on fast grass courts at slight altitude.

Further, we also know that Stuttgart has some of the highest first-serve win percentages and hold rates on tour, which doesn’t make things any easier.

Finally, the Australian we are backing to keep things close is a quick court expert with a decent serve who is coming off a nice underdog win against the big-serving American lefty Ben Shelton last round (kicking myself for not making that the second preview for Thursday’s matches, but that’s the trick with low volume, the small sample size can bite you).

I’ll continue backing these higher-odds underdogs in these spots during the grass season. It’s worked well for me away from these written previews this week and it’s a profitable strategy overall. Our Berrettini vs Duckworth prediction is for over 22.5 games. 

Check out another ATP preview over on our expert insights page.

Matteo Berrettini Recent Form

Back on grass and in Stuttgart, Berrettini seems to be finding his best form again. He alluded to how much he loves playing on grass in his post-match interview on Thursday and it’s shown so far this week.

Still, he hasn’t dominated anyone and his win against Denis Shapovalov on Thursday was thanks largely to Shapovalov hitting some poor forehands from advantageous positions in rallies and hitting double faults. Losing his cool also helped Berrettini find one of the breaks.

Other than his chip returns, I struggle to see what he does to make life tough on his opponents in their service games. Though he wins a strong majority of his matches on quicker courts, he often does so by relatively thin margins.

James Duckworth Recent Form

Duckworth has been playing grass court tennis for a few weeks now, starting in Surbiton at a Challenger last week, before coming to Stuttgart and winning four matches to progress from the qualifying draw into the quarterfinals.

He’s been the kind of player that bounces back between the main tour and Challenger tour for a few years now, but he’s at his best – and most likely to be seen at tour-level – on quicker courts.

He plays with very little spin, so the clay doesn’t suit and on lower bouncing courts the fairly pacy groundstrokes become even tougher to deal with as they skid through the court and carry past opponents that much quicker.

If he can work the ball side to side he should be able to find a decent number of easy points against a Berrettini that isn’t the fleetest of foot and does tend to desperately slice balls back that land fairly short.

Holds of serve aren’t the toughest to come by against the big Italian and Duckworth is the quick court specialist that should be able to do just that.

Matteo Berrettini vs James Duckworth H2H – Stat of the Match

This is the first meeting between these two.

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