Daniil Medvedev vs Grigor Dimitrov Prediction, Odds, Preview, Stats, Form, H2H, 3/13/24

The second preview of the day for Wednesday’s action from the BNP Paribas Open also comes from the ATP side of things. Let’s delve deeper into Daniil Medvedev vs Grigor Dimitrov. Dimitrov’s win probability comes in at about 40.5% while Medvedev is favored to win at 1.59 odds. The handicap is 2.5 games and the total games line is 22.5. Our Medvedev vs Dimitrov prediction is for Medvedev to cover -2.5 games.

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Medvedev vs Dimitrov Prediction: Medvedev Undervalued Despite Dislike of Slower Courts

• Prediction: Medvedev -2.5 games
• Best Odds: 1.96
• Bookmaker: Pinnacle
• Stakes: 3/10

Odds as at 2:00 am UK Time on March 13th, 2024. Odds may now differ.

As well as Dimitrov has played this season, I’m not convinced he’s been so good that he commands the respect that comes with being, for all intents and purposes, a one-break-of-serve underdog against one of the world’s best.

I know Medvedev can’t stand the slow courts Indian Wells offers up, but that didn’t stop him from making it to the final a year ago, and his serve is still strong enough to find cheap points and his incredible defensive play from behind the baseline is actually a decent strategy in slower conditions.

Dimitrov has continued his strong form from 2023 but is a bit more error-prone and I’m not convinced he has the needed offense to hit through Medvedev’s grinding defensive output and the courts.

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Daniil Medvedev Recent Form

I would say that Medvedev has looked rather plain in quite a few matches so far in 2024. Yet, he still boasts a record of 11-2 and was a set away from being the Australian Open champion. He lost that match to the best player in the world at the moment, Jannik Sinner.

His other loss? To another player on fire in Ugo Humbert.

I’m impressed with Dimitrov’s play, but I don’t know if I trust him to pull off a win against Medvedev as much as the other two.

Medvedev’s last round against Korda saw him require a third set, and he’s had some rather lackadaisical efforts in other early-round matches at tournaments this year (his first two matches in both Melbourne and Dubai were struggles at moments), but his ability to play his way into form has also been apparent.

With a strong serve that can find a decent number of quick points against a mediocre returner in Dimitrov and the rally tolerance to wait out errors from the powerful, but sometimes errant Bulgarian, there’s certainly a logical path to victory for the Russian to cover the handicap here.

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Grigor Dimitrov Recent Form

Dimitrov’s resume so far this year looks a lot like that of Medvedev. An excellent record (15-3) with losses to de Minaur and Humbert. He also has a loss to Nuno Borges, but at this point that looks much more like an outlier than anything else.

He’s got a nice serve, a strong forehand, and one of the last one-handed backhands that don’t appear to have visible weaknesses on quicker surfaces and he’s not the worst mover either.

It’s always been about his penchant for hitting too many unforced errors and wilting in big moments. Medvedev presents a great chance for him to show that he’s overcome those issues. He won’t get much of anything for free, will need sustained periods of consistency and controlled aggression, and his return game will be tested.

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Daniil Medvedev vs Grigor Dimitrov H2H – Stat of the Match

These two have played nine matches dating back to 2017. All of them were on different types of hard courts too, other than the first match, which took place on grass.

Medvedev leads the overall series 6-3, though since the start of the 2023 season, the series is 2-1 to the world No. 4.

Dimitrov did end Medvedev’s three-match win streak in the rivalry in Paris last fall, but that took a third-set tiebreak to get done.

I’ll side with the better player with the bigger serve and the ability to elicit far more unforced errors.

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