Daniil Medvedev vs Arthur Fils Prediction, Stats, Form, H2H, 3/13/25

The quarterfinals are upon us at Indian Wells. To start off our ATP previews, let’s look more at Daniil Medvedev vs Arthur Fils.

Fils’ win probability is only 29%, while Medvedev is favoured to win at 1.35 odds. The handicap is 3.5 games and the total games line is 21.5.

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Jon Reid’s Medvedev vs Fils prediction is for Medvedev to keep rolling.

Daniil Medvedev vs Arthur Fils Prediction: Medvedev Too Solid for Emerging French Star

• Prediction: Medvedev -3.5 Games
• Best Odds: 1.80 & 2.05
• Bookmaker: bet365 & Pinnacle
• Stakes: 2/10 & 2/10

Odds as at 12:30 am UK Time on March 13th, 2025. Odds may now differ.

After backing Fils to get through the last round against Marcos Giron, I’m hopping off the bandwagon this time around.

The fact is, though Fils has weapons and slower courts may give him time to hit his shots, as balls come back over and over again, his error-prone tendencies tend to come to the forefront. That is Medvedev’s specialty and though he may despise slower courts, it’s important to note that they suit his relentlessly defensive game pretty well.

Consider the fact that last year he went on a tirade about how these courts weren’t even fit to be seen as hard courts with how slow they played…during a run to the final.

This year he’s once again back in the second week and looking to defend all those points from March of 2024.

If Fils had been showing us improvements in the solidity department, I’d tend to give him a greater chance at pulling off the upset. He has spewed errors a lot this season and last round saw him put on an error-strewn performance as well. He just played a Giron that was also missing a lot and who prefers quicker courts himself.

Fils is going to have to come to net behind his serve a lot and limit his errors more than we’ve seen from him all season to win this contest and it’s just not something I trust him to do often enough.

Daniil Medvedev Recent Form

Could his least favourite hard court in the world end up being the place where Medvedev finally snaps his extended streak without lifting a trophy? The short answer is “likely not” considering Carlos Alcaraz is currently in the state of California, but he sure does look like he’s recaptured the dominance on court we haven’t seen from him in quite some time.

The start of the season was horrible with his serve not looking nearly as effective, with many speculating that the 29-year-old was feeling the effects of potential shoulder issues.

His play in Dubai certainly made it look as though he’s inching his way back to his best, as he breezed through two rounds before outplaying Tallon Griekspoor in what ended up being an agonizing loss.

Now this week, he’s played four complete sets (got a retirement from Alex Michelsen after just two games) and has lost more than two games in just one of them. I’m happy to back him against the handicap as he looks to be just about back, with these prices representing somewhat of a discount as the market is yet to catch up.

Arthur Fils Recent Form

After a dominant win in the opening round against Canadian Gabriel Diallo, Fils had to navigate his way through a pair of three setters. The errors were eye-opening last round, as he needed quite a bit of time to get on track early in the match and then had another patch of poor play in the second set as he found himself trounced by Giron.

I was on his side in that one against someone that didn’t have the pedigree to outhit or outlast him. This opponent is a completely different test and Medvedev most certainly has the ability to outlast him (and has forced much better players into submission).

His powerful forehand had trouble cutting through the courts and finding winners against Giron, and I’m not keen on trusting him in even longer rallies against the world No. 6.

Daniil Medvedev vs Arthur Fils H2H – Stat of the Match

The two have only met once previously, with Medvedev defeating Fils comprehensively in Vienna back in 2023. Now, it’s important to note that Fils has progressed in the time that’s passed since that first encounter, but the primary weakness that Medvedev exploited then is still present in the Frenchman’s game now.

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