tennis | Monday, October 10, 2022 8:50 AM

Monday Tennis Best Bet: ATP Gijon, Constant Lestienne vs Sebastian Baez

Jon Reid

Constant Lestienne vs Sebastian Baez Best Bet: Monday, October 10th

A nice end to the week for the men’s selections, as Daniil Medvedev routs Roberto Bautista Agut to bring home both the handicap wagers.

This week, the tour heads to Gijon, Spain and Florence, Italy for a pair of 250-level events. It’s a week that players typically down on the Challenger Tour find chances to pick up far more ranking points as the calendar winds down.

For Monday’s selection, it’s a match in Gijon, featuring Constant Lestienne and Sebastian Baez that we’ll delve into.

In this article:

Constant Lestienne vs Sebastian Baez Preview
Constant Lestienne vs Sebastian Baez Best Bet

Constant Lestienne vs Sebastian Baez Preview

October 10th, 13:30 UK Time

One of the stories of the season at the Challenger Tour level is the Frenchman Lestienne. With an incredible amount of variety to his game – although he does lack power – Lestienne is almost like a magician on court. For years, however, his mental game and tendency to get frustrated and let it impact his game held him back.

The last few months have been a revelation though, as he’s really found a groove and racked up the victories at the Challenger Tour. In fact, the week before last, Lestienne made a run all the way to an ATP semifinal in Tel Aviv, losing only to Marin Cilic.

On the flip side, Baez hasn’t won a match in nearly three months, with his last win coming on the clay courts of Bastad in mid-July. His form is the polar opposite of the Frenchman’s and he doesn’t match up particularly well, to make matters worse.

Without the power to hit through Lestienne, this one could end up seeing very long rallies. The form differential, as well as the comfort gap on indoor hard courts (Baez has only played three matches this year indoors, losing them all in Davis Cup play), plus Lestienne’s variety gives him the huge advantage here in my book.

Constant Lestienne vs Sebastian Baez Best Bet

The fact that Baez hasn’t won in months and is on an indoor hard court alone would be enough for me to back Lestienne at -3 games in the 1.81 price range.

The fact that Lestienne can hang right there with him in longer rallies without committing an error – essentially taking away the one advantage Baez has over many of his opponents – just makes this proposition even more enticing.