tennis | Monday, May 1, 2023 6:35 AM (Revised at: Monday, May 1, 2023 8:43 AM)

Monday Tennis Best Bet: ATP Madrid, Alex de Minaur vs Aslan Karatsev

Jon Reid

Alex de Minaur vs Aslan Karatsev Best Bet: Monday, May 1st

No go from Alex Molcan, who lost from 7-5 up in a tight affair to Yoshihito Nishioka.

We’re into the second week of Madrid, as the field dwindles, and for Monday’s article, we’ll look at the matchup between Alex de Minaur and Aslan Karatsev.

In this article:

Alex de Minaur vs Aslan Karatsev Preview
Alex de Minaur vs Aslan Karatsev Best Bet

Alex de Minaur vs Aslan Karatsev Preview

May 1st, 11:30 (UK Time)

You don’t want to let Karatsev get hot, and that may be precisely what is happening at the moment, as the Russian is finding his legs over the last few tournaments.

After qualifying for the 250 event in Munich and winning a main draw match, he’s now qualified (with ease) and won a pair of main draw matches in Madrid – including avenging his loss from Munich to Botic van de Zandschulp.

With an incredibly powerful, albeit erratic game, Karatsev’s game can (and has) worked across surfaces, but the altitude clay seems to be helping his resurgence as he attempts to return to the top-100.

De Minaur is the opposite kind of player. He’s incredibly consistent, and prefers faster courts and quick conditions.

The altitude may help a bit with that, but in terms of surface, the edge here has to go to Karatsev.

The Aussie has been crushed in his two losses this season to decent clay-court players and has a trio of wins. Those victories have come against Andy Murray, who has played a handful of professional matches on the red dirt in years, Marco Cecchinato, who doesn’t have many weapons to hurt de Minaur and hasn’t been very good in a while, and a young Alexander Shevchenko, who was coming off a long week and title at a Challenger in Madrid.

Alex de Minaur vs Aslan Karatsev Best Bet

With the altitude likely helping Karatsev’s aggressive game in his attempt to control play and keep points short, and his game translating to the clay a bit more effectively, I’m content taking Karatsev at the odds on offer at the moment.

While de Minaur’s game is a bit more predictable and reliable, that’s about the only reason I believe he should be a favourite.

In a stylistic contrast like this, he who executes his gameplan best should win.

With the breakeven percentage for Karatsev being around 40% at the current odds, I do believe there’s some value in backing him to pull off the upset.

Selection: Karatsev to win
Best Odds: 2.55 (Unibet)
Stakes: 2/10

Odds as at 2:00 am on April 27th, 2023. Odds may now differ.

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