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It’s the week before a slam, and that means while there are three tournaments across the ATP and WTA Tours, it’s going to take a certain level of trying to assess motivation levels for players before placing any wagers.
US Open qualifiers will begin on Tuesday and we’ll look to target some of those matches as the week wears on as well. For Monday, however, it’s down to the state of North Carolina and the tournament in Winston Salem for our ATP selection. Let’s break down the match taking place between Kyle Edmund and Tomas Martin Etcheverry.
In this article:
August 22nd, Time TBD
We begin the week with a curious matchup between Edmund and Etcheverry, as each has potential concerns in this matchup, but for me, they’re being a touch overblown for one of them.
With the Brit just returning to tour after an absence of well over a full year, it’s obvious that for him, the rust is the concern. For Etcheverry it’s more about surface comfort and having played each of the last two weeks (both on clay).
I’m going to side with Edmund here as the side presenting some value for a few reasons. First, while the return is obvious, the fact is, he’s played several tournaments and managed to win four matches to this point – a few of which came against legitimate Challenger Tour hard-court players in Rinky Hijikata and Yosuke Watanuki. His forehand has still looked like a potent weapon and he’s building up matches, which is another positive.
Secondly, we have to take into account the comfort on hard courts. Not only are hard courts Edmund’s obvious preference, Etcheverry is about as much of a pure clay courter as you’ll find. The 23-year-old from Argentina has only played six matches on hard courts this year, winning three (all at Australian Open qualifying), with most of those coming against fellow clay courters.
Finally, the matchup is also a tough one for Etcheverry. Not only has he made the semifinals in back-to-back weeks at Challenger Tour level on a different surface (playing several matches that exceeded 2:45 on the match clock) and could face some fatigue issues, but the one thing he does have that translates onto hard courts is his forehand. The only issue there? He’s overmatched in a big way on that wing by Edmund, who’s forehand is one of the better ones you’ll see in the sport.
For my money, it seems as though the books are still approaching Edmund’s matches with an air of caution after his prolonged absence. While I certainly understand that – and even believe the price should reflect that to a certain extent – I think having him at nearly 1.70 odds on a hard court against the Argentinian is being a bit too cautious.
I’ll look to take advantage with a decent-sized wager on both Edmund to win and for him to cover the rather small games handicap.
Odds as at 09:00pm on August 22nd, 2022. Odds may now differ.
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