Gael Monfils vs Adrian Mannarino Prediction, Stats, Form, H2H, July 1st

Bust out the strawberries and cream! The Wimbledon main draw is here. For our first preview of the world’s most famous tournament, let’s look at Gael Monfils vs Adrian Mannarino.

Monfils’ win probability is about 40%, while Mannarino is favoured to win at 1.60 odds. The handicap is 3.5 games and the total games line is 38.5.

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Our Monfils vs Mannarino prediction is for Monfils to win and cover the handicap.

Gael Monfils vs Adrian Mannarino (Wimbledon) Prediction: Oppose Struggling Lefty in All French Clash

• Prediction: Monfils to win, -3.5 games & -1.5 sets
• Best Odds: 1.60, 1.98 & 2.09
• Bookmaker: Pinnacle
• Stakes: 4/10, 3/10 & 2/10

Odds as at 1:00 am UK Time on July 1st, 2024. Odds may now differ.

Finding bets with fairly straightforward handicaps that have value is typically tough to do. In this case, however, I think we need to avoid overthinking things.

Monfils is coming off a strong week, has the better serve and he’s won more than two matches since February, which is more than his countryman can say.

Mannarino is usually a strong grass courter, but his form in the last four months has been so bad, that I’m not sure how Monfils is only 1.60 to win in this contest.

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Gael Monfils Recent Form

You have to hand it to the older of the two veterans from France. He hadn’t played on grass since the 2021 season and went all the way to the semifinals in Mallorca last week, only losing in a third set tiebreak to the eventual champion and one of the form players of the year –  Alejandro Tabilo.

Monfils didn’t find much success on the clay the last few months, so his tuneup success on the Spanish island was certainly welcome.

His big first serve plays very well on the quick grass courts and his athleticism allows him to start points on return and get into points, allowing him to pressure his opposition’s service games.

None of his wins this last week stand out as special, but I don’t think it takes a particularly high level to beat Mannarino at the moment.

Factor in his compatriot’s serve being decent, but nothing too overpowering and I think Monfils possesses a pretty decent matchup edge here as well.

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Adrian Mannarino Recent Form

The clay court losses were to be expected for the 36-year-old, with his flat hitting and hate for the dirt never really producing results on the surface.

The grass season yielding a 1-3 record with losses to some fairly middling players? That’s where concern has to creep in. Did Mannarino play above his level last season in surging into the world’s top-20? Probably. Is this still a pretty shocking run of form (now just 2-12 since Dallas)? Absolutely.

His only win on the lawns this summer came against a Challenger Tour player in Stefano Napolitano. He nearly lost that match as well.

The losses? Against an out of form Alex Michelsen, a Challenger Tour level pro in Gijs Brouwer and Grigor Dimitrov in a match that saw him win just three games.

There is certainly a case to be made that this is the biggest of stages and Mannarino could step it up and play his best on a surface that suits him, but nothing we’ve seen from him of late indicates he should be valued at 40% to win this contest.

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Gael Monfils vs Adrian Mannarino H2H – Stat of the Match

This has been a matchup that has favoured Monfils in the past. He leads Mannarino 5-2 all time. The only time they played in the last year came indoors in Stockholm, with Monfils getting by Mannarino in two tight sets.

With Mannarino in the form he is, it would be a shock to me if he were to use this match to turn things around.

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