Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard vs Maxime Janvier Prediction, Stats, Form, H2H, June 27th

Winning on Thursday means a spot in the most prestigious main draw in tennis for 16 men and 16 women. Our Thursday preview will look at the Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard vs Maxime Janvier match from Roehampton, where a spot in the Wimbledon draw is on the line. Let’s look at the best way to actually bet this one.

Janvier’s win probability is only 16.3%, while Mpetshi Perricard is favoured to win at 1.13 odds. The handicap is 4.5 games and the total games line is 39.5.

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Our Mpetshi Perricard vs Janvier prediction is for Janvier to extend this match.

Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard vs Maxime Janvier (Wimbledon) Prediction: Expect Tight Match in Final Qualifying Round

• Prediction: Janvier +2.5 sets, Janvier to win
• Best Odds: 1.75 & 6.13
• Bookmaker: Pinnacle
• Stakes: 3/10 & 1/10

Odds as at 1:00 am UK Time on June 27th, 2024. Odds may now differ.

Hard to see how this match ends in straight sets, especially with the final round of qualifying for the men playing out in a best-of-five sets format.

I almost took the over 3.5 sets as a result, but the odds and corresponding percentages are barely better than Janvier to win a set, and it makes little sense to bet that when I can have nearly the same price for Janvier to win just one instead of needing them both to win one.

 With how close these two have played each other in the past, the amount of firepower each of them has and the pair both holding over 90% of the time and breaking less than 10% of the time on grass in the last year, I have this as a very close match, so seeing Mpetshi Perricard run away with it in straight sets is an outcome I have happening well under 40% of the time. These odds of Janvier winning a set come in just a tick over 57% and I think there’s plenty of value there to make a wager.

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Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard Recent Form

The younger of the two Frenchmen continues to have a strong grass campaign, now 7-2 after qualifying in Stuttgart and then reaching the second round as a qualifier at Queen’s Club.

That being said, it’s hard to deny the fact that he’s come out on the right side of a lot of close matches. Hard not to with that serve, but also hard to avoid playing long, close matches with that lack of return.

We’ve talked about how it is nonsensical to have a player with his game style as either a big favourite or a big underdog on this surface as we’ve both backed and opposed him in previous writeups.

With the statistics backing it up and an opponent who has plenty of pop in his game himself, I have to once again stick with that line of logic in betting his final qualifying round match here.

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Maxime Janvier Recent Form

Janvier’s season has been as up-and-down as one would expect from a player with such firepower, but a complete lack of consistency or plan B to fall back on when things aren’t working.

He lost his first nine matches of the 2024 season, before winning 14 of 16 at lower tier ITF and Challenger tournaments  – including splitting a pair of close matches against his compatriot and foe on Thursday – and followed that up with a 2-7 stretch on clay.

He didn’t play any warmups for this week’s qualifying tournament, but has looked right at home. Fast courts rewarding big serves and powerful groundstrokes and often allowing players to avoid long rallies that result in errors? Sounds perfect for someone with the 27-year-old’s approach.

He’s beaten two quality opponents – as an underdog both times – and hasn’t lost a set yet in the process.

I think he’ll be much tougher for Mpetshi Perricard than the markets may believe in this third qualifying tilt.

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Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard vs Maxime Janvier H2H – Stat of the Match

These two have battled twice this season already. They’ve each won once, with Mpetshi Perricard winning in straight sets by a one break of serve margin and Janvier winning in three sets in the other meeting.

We’ve seen a few tiebreaks in the five sets played, and with each of these guys playing such serve-centric tennis during the grass swing and the conditions even faster, don’t be surprised if we see a few more of them in this match.

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