Rafael Nadal vs Jiri Lehecka Prediction, Stats, Form, H2H, April 30th

Our final preview of the day from the ATP Mutua Madrid Open focuses on Rafael Nadal vs Jiri Lehecka, as the 37-year-old looks to keep his run going in preparation for the French Open.

Lehecka’s win probability is 50.8%, with Nadal favoured at 1.92 odds. The handicap is 0.5 games and the total games line is 22.5.

Our Nadal vs Lehecka prediction is for Lehecka to win.

In this article:

• Rafael Nadal vs Jiri Lehecka Prediction
• Rafael Nadal Recent Form
• Jiri Lehecka Recent Form
• Rafael Nadal vs Jiri Lehecka H2H Stat of the Match
• Safer Gambling

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Rafael Nadal vs Jiri Lehecka (Mutua Madrid Open) Prediction: Nadal to Struggle to Back Up Three Set Win on Tuesday

• Prediction: Jiri Lehecka to win
• Best Odds: 1.97
• Bookmaker: Pinnacle
• Stakes: 4/10

Odds as at 2:45 am UK Time on April 30th, 2024. Odds may now differ.

As inspiring as it was to see Nadal come through on Monday against Pedro Cachin, and avenge his loss from Barcelona against Alex de Minaur, there are a few concerns for me on Tuesday.

The first is that he’s once again talked about the fact that even he’d be surprised if he manages to pull off the win. Is that simply downplaying expectations? Perhaps, but he did acknowledge in press after the win against Cachin that Lehecka plays a much tougher ball than the Argentine. That much is true.

The other concern is that he not only has to come back after a three set win where he faded a bit after the opener, but unlike most rounds in these extended Masters 1000 tournaments, he won’t have a day off to recuperate. When he was forced to play back-to-back days in Barcelona, things didn’t go well.

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Rafael Nadal Recent Form

Now 4-1 since his return on the clay, Nadal is showing what has made him into the legend he is today with that tenacious, never-say-die play.

He’s far from his best physically and when it comes to his serve, yet he’s managed to find  a few lopsided victories and a pair of closer ones.

That does bring us to the issue of the step up in competition this time around. On little rest and coming off a three setter that saw his dominance within the match dwindle after the first set, taking on the biggest ball striker he’s seen since returning to play could be tough. Doing so coming off a tough three set match without a day off should only make things tougher.

The topspin is still there and Nadal did do well to come to net whenever he could against Cachin, but unless he’s going to be able to sustain a high level physically to defend so he can wait out the unforced errors from Lehecka, it’s tough to see how he wins this time out. That holds especially true if he plays the same way he did against Cachin on Monday.

Lehecka is far more likely to emerge victorious if we see a similar level of play from Rafa.

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Jiri Lehecka Recent Form

Lehecka’s form in his last several tournaments has been a pretty strong indication of his volatile game style. While he’s reached the quarterfinals in Dubai and Indian Wells and the fourth round in Madrid, he’s also managed to lose his opening match in Rotterdam and Miami, with a loss as a favourite in his second match in Marseille.

He’s another player on the ascent that is still trying to find that sustained ability to play aggressive tennis match-to-match and tournament-to-tournament.

With his ability to play on the clay and the power to take advantage of a fairly weak Nadal serve and potentially movement to boot, he’s well positioned to pick up a big win. Whether he can match the moment and overcome a hostile crowd, however, remains to be seen.

If I trusted his level to be a bit more consistent or his mental game against a legend of the sport in his native country, I’d have staked this bet a little higher.

For now, I’m happy to go fairly large without putting too much on the line backing a still semi-unreliable player.

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Rafael Nadal vs Jiri Lehecka H2H – Stat of the Match

This will be the first match between the two. If Nadal holds up and manages to win this one, I think it will be a big boost to his chances at Roland Garros in a few weeks time.

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Safer Gambling

At bettingexpert, we always take a safe approach to gambling. We’ll never bet more than we can afford or chase losses. For more advice, head to our Safer Gambling hub.