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Mixed martial arts Wednesday Tennis Best Bet: ATP Monte Carlo, Nicolas Jarry vs Alexei Popyrin
Nicolas Jarry vs Alexei Popyrin Best Bet: Wednesday, April 12th
Frustrating stuff from Luca Nardi, who wins in straight sets, but can’t cover the 4.5-game handicap. In his post-match interview, he mentioned not playing his best, and that showed in a 7-5, 7-5 scoreline against a rather poor Valentin Vacherot on clay.
For Wednesday, we’ll preview a match between two big servers in Nicolas Jarry and Alexei Popyrin.
In this article:
Nicolas Jarry vs Alexei Popyrin Preview
April 12th, 10:00 (UK Time)
It’s been a lovely season for the 27-year-old from Chile.
Armed with a big serve and huge forehand, Jarry is a tough out on clay courts, where he’s most comfortable. With his experience, power to hit through the courts and the ability to hit a heavy ball off that forehand wing to boot, he has a game that can compete against just about anyone on any given day.
He’s already won a title this season on home soil at the 250 in Santiago, reached the semifinals at the 500-level event in Rio de Janeiro and was ever-so-close to reaching the final with a win over Carlos Alcaraz – which is no easy feat.
As for Popyrin, his start to 2023 has been a pleasant surprise for him and his team on the slower red dirt. As a hard courter, the expectations for the clay season aren’t that high for the Aussie, as his movement, footwork and comfort with the different bounces simply aren’t there.
He’s 4-1 so far in 2023 on the clay, but there are caveats to that record. The first is that one of those wins came as a 1.03 favourite against a wild card from Morocco, who is barely inside the top 1000 rankings-wise. Next, he beat a somewhat resurgent Benoit Paire, but he trailed 2-6, 1-5 and was all but dead. Against just about anyone not named Benoit Paire, that is not just a loss, but a lopsided loss. Finally, he had to come back from 3-6 down to Vit Kopriva. The Czech is a solid clay courter, but he’s a Challenger Tour-level kind of guy and can be very erratic from the baseline for long stretches.
Contextually, that start isn’t all that impressive after all.
Now he’s taking a big leap in quality of opposition as he takes on Jarry. I like the Chilean’s chances.
Nicolas Jarry vs Alexei Popyrin Best Bet
With this match being on clay, I think the price point of 1.40 to 1.45 for Jarry is actually close to being fair.
I do think there is value in a -3 game handicap, however. With the surface playing so slowly, even a guy not known for his return capabilities like Jarry can find breaks of serve and cover the rather small handicap here.
With the rather substantial surface edge he has, I’m happy to back him to cover the -3 games here. I have this closer to -4 against Popyrin.
- Selection: Jarry -3 Games
- Best Odds: 1.91 (Pinnacle)
- Stakes: 4/10
Odds as at 2:00 am on April 12th, 2023. Odds may now differ.
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