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Tennis | Monday, July 8, 2024 8:20 AM

Novak Djokovic vs Holger Rune Prediction, Picks, Odds, H2H, July 8th

Novak Djokovic vs Holger Rune Prediction, Picks, Odds, H2H, July 8th
Associated Press / Alamy Stock Photo: NOVAK DJOKOVIC of Serbia reacts

Our other preview from the fourth round at Wimbledon from the men’s draw comes in the Novak Djokovic vs Holger Rune match. It’s the premiere match of the day and should be a fun one! 

Rune’s win probability is about 28%, while Djokovic is favored to win at 1.33 odds. The handicap is 4.5 games and the total games line is 40.5.

Our Djokovic vs Rune prediction is to pass, unless Rune gets up to the 4.00 odds range.

Novak Djokovic vs Holger Rune (Wimbledon) Prediction: Marquee Match Comes Down to Who Elevates Their Level

I find it tough to trust either of these guys right now. Though Djokovic doesn’t look to be hampered much by his knee, he hasn’t been as dominant this season as he was last, even before the meniscus issue.

He wasn’t particularly dominant in either of his last two wins either.

The problem is, Rune has had a down year by his standards, playing far too many close matches against guys he should cruise against (I’ll touch on my theory as to why that is in a moment) and had to come back as a large favorite last round himself.

We have seen Rune push Djokovic and even beat him repeatedly in the past because he does match up well. Athletic, has a strong backhand and now has more aggression to try and take it to one of tennis’ all-time greats.

I’ll pass for now at the odds on offer, but my buy point on Rune would be at 4.00 odds.

More previews are available on the expert insights section.

Novak Djokovic Recent Form

The current world No. 2 looked very strong in beating clay courter Vit Kopriva in his first match at the All England Club, but against both Jacob Fearnley and Alexei Popyrin, he didn’t look nearly as in control at certain junctures as you’d expect from him.

The main concerns center around the veteran’s offensive output. He just doesn’t seem to be able to end points quickly without landing a well-placed first serve anymore and even his elite return game hasn’t been producing as much on the quicker surfaces.

Whether that’s due to some regression or because he looks to conserve energy when already ahead by a break in a set, I’m not sure, but it’s tough to trust him as a big favorite against quality opposition these days.

Holger Rune Recent Form

Rune has had some head-scratching-type losses this year, but credit where it’s due: he’s made several Masters quarterfinals, the last two second weeks at grand slams, and a slew of other deep runs at the 250 and 500 level.

Consistency hasn’t been his strong suit, but I think a lot of that is attributable to a concerted effort to add more aggression to his game, which at times leads to less effective play on return when trying to go too big against pace.

Whatever it is, he hasn’t quite found the right balance between his strong return and newfound aggression and it has led to some wins that seem to be needlessly close, as well as some poor losses.

I’ve had a tough time getting a read on Rune in 2024, and I’m happy to just pass here unless I see a price that simply can’t be passed on.

Novak Djokovic vs Holger Rune H2H – Stat of the Match

Rune only trails this head-to-head by a 3-2 score. I alluded earlier to the characteristics of his game that help him play Djokovic tough.

In their last four meetings, their matches have required a deciding set and I wouldn’t be surprised if Rune can push Djokovic once more.

Safer Gambling

At bettingexpert, we always take a safe approach to gambling. We’ll never bet more than we can afford or chase losses. For more advice, head to our Safer Gambling hub.

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