Novak Djokovic vs Lorenzo Musetti Prediction, Picks, Odds, H2H, July 12th

The second semifinal in the men’s draw features Novak Djokovic vs Lorenzo Musetti as the all-time great is just two match wins from another Wimbledon title and adding another major to his tally.

Musetti’s win probability is very low at just 15.25%, with Djokovic favoured to win at 1.15 odds. The handicap is 6.5 games and the total games line is 34.5.

Our Novak Djokovic vs Lorenzo Musetti prediction is for Djokovic to move through the Italian with relative ease.

Novak Djokovic vs Lorenzo Musetti Prediction: Djokovic to Cruise Off Clay Once More Against Musetti

• Prediction: Djokovic -2.5 Sets
• Best Odds: 1.95
• Bookmaker: Pinnacle
• Stakes: 1/10

Odds updated at 10:15 pm UK Time on July 11th, 2024. 

I don’t know if I like the handicap at 6.5 games, but I do think Djokovic moves through this more often than not. I was on the fence about the 3-0 set scoreline, but I think I’m going to get involved. I don’t think the match stays under the 34.5 games line if this doesn’t end in straight sets and while Djokovic may take over after dropping a set to get the -6.5 there, I believe there’s a bit more of an edge on the 3-0 bet.

It’s just a small wager as almost all my second-week bets are at grand slams, but I have just enough value to get involved here.

Check out the expert insights section for more previews!

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Novak Djokovic Recent Form

It’s been a tough season for Djokovic to date. Though he’s still racked up the match victories, he hasn’t looked as dominant against some lesser competition, has had to overcome slow starts regularly and, what’s most concerning, he’s looked a bit underpowered for long stretches.

Perhaps he’s worked his way into form this past week though, as his last match against Holger Rune was probably one of his best of the last six months. I’m well aware the Dane wasn’t at his best, but it was more about what Djokovic was able to do on the court that we simply hadn’t seen much of in 2024 that was inspiring.

Sure, that could be recency bias, and it’s important not to overreact and just expect the same level on Friday, but it has to be encouraging at the very least.

I love him away from the clay in this matchup and if he can muster the same crisp groundstrokes we saw a few rounds back and has used the extra rest to recharge his batteries and have that knee rest up a bit more, he should be in good shape.

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Lorenzo Musetti Recent Form

He just keeps winning. It’s not always pretty, and he’s had some good fortune along the way, but the 22-year-old is now 12-2 this grass season and set to rejoin the world’s top 20 on Monday. A win in this match would propel him to 14th – what would be a new career high.

I think that this magical run comes to an end though. While he played a pair of really poor moving and poor returning servers in the last few rounds, he now gets one of the all-time great returners in the semis. Where working the outer parts of the court was an incredibly effective tactic before, he now gets a much more athletic player who covers the court superbly.

Then there’s the fact that he does lack big-time in the offensive department. Even his shotmaking, which has stood out for the last few weeks, is matched by Djokovic.

I’m not sure where the path to victory is here for him. Unless Djokovic reverts to his more passive approach and looks underpowered again, Musetti is likely in big trouble.

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Novak Djokovic vs Lorenzo Musetti H2H – Stat of the Match

This is a really fun head-to-head series. See, on clay courts where Djokovic’s offensive ability isn’t nearly as strong, Musetti has continually given him fits. With both men being so solid and able to work the ball around the court, as well as being able to play long rallies, Musetti can level the playing field.

Off of clay courts though? The man known to his fans as “Nole” has been dominant against Musetti.

With Djokovic likely having found his offensive abilities just in time, I think we’re likely to see that happen once more.

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