tennis | Thursday, January 26, 2023 9:38 AM

Thursday Tennis Best Bet: ATP Australian Open, Novak Djokovic vs Tommy Paul

Jon Reid

Novak Djokovic vs Tommy Paul Best Bet: Thursday, January 26th

The Ben Shelton and Tommy Paul over ended up coming in overnight, but the underdog selection of Thiago Agustin Tirante fell just short. Plenty to like from the results, though, as the value was spotted on the Australian Open match, while our 2.81 odds underdog made it all the way to 5-5 in the third before succumbing.

Onto Thursday, where we’ll look at the Australian Open men’s semifinals that take place overnight, and it’s the Novak Djokovic versus Paul match that tickles the fancy.

In this article:

Novak Djokovic vs Tommy Paul Preview
Novak Djokovic vs Tommy Paul Best Bet

Novak Djokovic vs Tommy Paul Preview

January 27th, Time TBD (UK Time)

The Djokovic train just keeps rolling. Despite rumours swirling of a potential leg issue, it feels as though the Serbian legend of the sport is only getting stronger as the tournament progresses. That should surprise no one, though, as Djokovic won this very event with an abdominal tear a few years ago.

Paul has had a nice run through the tournament in his own right and his serve and forehand have really propelled him to some nice service numbers on the season. Sporting a hold rate of 88.5% and winning an impressive 77% of first serve points, as well as 57% of second serve points, the American has been blitzing opponents and keeping them on the back foot with strong rally tolerance, groundstrokes and ability on return, as well.

Djokovic, however, is another sort of challenge. The greatest returner of all time has found ways to break down just about anyone’s serve, and he holds advantages in just about every facet of the game.

The other concern for Paul? Much of his dominance on serve has come against less-than-stellar returners. When playing the likes of Roberto Bautista Agut, Alejandro Davidovich Fokina or Jack Draper, his first and second serve point win percentages are well below his season averages.

I think applying some context to his statistics shows that against strong, athletic returners that are rock-solid from the baseline, he still has some issues.

Novak Djokovic vs Tommy Paul Best Bet

One other noteworthy thing about Djokovic’s run is that he hasn’t really been pushed yet. The player who has kept things closest was Grigor Dimitrov, losing by “just” six games (though it was a straight sets loss, nonetheless).

Only Enzo Couacaud managed to take a set – in a tiebreak – and a cursory glance at the final scoreline in that one will tell you he couldn’t come close to sustaining that level the rest of the way.

All that is to say, not only has Djokovic been winning, but he’s been winning by margin, and only getting stronger as the tournament has gone along.

I’m going to back the under here, with the number set at 30.5 games. First, it’s been nearly impossible to take a set from him this tournament. Second, it’s also been really tough for players to avoid at least one lopsided set. That gives us room for a strong start from Paul and a 7-5 or 7-6 first set, with Djokovic taking over as the match progresses and posting a 6-2 set somewhere along the way.