Nuno Borges vs Henrique Rocha Prediction, Picks, Odds, H2H, July 18th

We’re onto Thursday already with our ATP previews and to get things going, let’s look at the all-Portuguese Nuno Borges vs Henrique Rocha match from the Nordea Open.

Rocha’s win probability is just under 40%, with Borges favored to win at 1.55 odds. The handicap is 2.5 games and the total games line is 22.5.

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Our Borges vs Rocha prediction is for Borges to cover the handicap.

Nuno Borges vs Henrique Rocha Prediction: Veteran Has Too Much in All Portuguese Battle

• Prediction: Borges -2.5 Games
• Best Odds: 4/10
• Bookmaker: 1.88
• Stakes: 4/10

Odds updated at 1:45 am UK Time on July 18th, 2024. 

As happy as I am that Rocha cashed our bet the other day when he beat Camilo Ugo Carabelli, the fact he’s only slightly more of an underdog here against a much more well-rounded player is surprising to me.

Where he matched well with Ugo Carabelli simply because the Argentine had nothing offensively to separate them, I think this is the opposite. Borges isn’t all that error-prone and should be able to stick with his younger countryman in longer rallies and he’s got far more to his serve and baseline game in terms of offense.

There’s a reason that Borges is an established main tour pro, while Rocha is still primarily building up his ranking at the Challenger level.

This handicap represents a one-break-of-serve margin of victory and to me, that’s the way to go.

Nuno Borges Recent Form

After a really poor grass season, Borges seems happy to be back on the clay. He made a high-level Challenger quarterfinal and then the second week in Rome before suffering a disappointing loss against Tomas Machac at the French Open, where he struggled to hold onto leads and fell apart as the match went on. That was against a fellow tour-level pro and someone who has been ascendent on tour in 2024, with weapons from the baseline.

Now back on clay in Bastad, Borges managed a straight sets win in his opening round. Now, he trailed big time in the second set, but that was against Andrea Pellegrino – a player who can pummel the ball but can’t sustain that level without hitting unforced errors.

I think he has to look at this match as a near must-win, despite the markets only believing he wins it around 65% of the time.

He’s more experienced and more well-rounded than his compatriot and should be able to win by a standard 6-4, 6-4 type score at the very least.

Henrique Rocha Recent Form

It’s been nice to see someone like Rocha succeed this year through nearly seven months of play. He’s a hard worker on court, rarely displays signs of negative energy and he’s built his ranking without a slew of wild cards thanks to associations with big agencies.

He won 64 matches a year ago, many at the ITF level to earn entry in Challengers and he’s done well at that level fairly often this year.

That said, as I mentioned above, his game still has limitations, and though his forehand has improved, I’m not sure it’s ready to compete regularly at the ATP Tour level. He did handle Ugo Carabelli, but let’s see if he can handle a player who plays far more regularly at this level and against much tougher opposition than his last opponent.

Nuno Borges vs Henrique Rocha H2H – Stat of the Match

Whether it be the age difference, the different tours they play on or the fact that Borges did spend a few years in college (though that was before Rocha was a pro), these two have yet to play as professionals, despite being countrymen.

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