Ons Jabeur vs Donna Vekic Western and Southern Open Preview and Expert Tip: World No. 5 to Cover Handicap

Ons Jabeur vs Donna Vekic (Western and Southern Open): Thursday, August 17th

Another longer odds underdog identified, where we split the wagers with the over coming in easily, while we lose yet another tight three-set contest when it comes to the moneyline wager.

For our WTA preview for Thursday’s tennis at the Western & Southern Open, let’s jump into the Ons Jabeur vs Donna Vekic match.

In this article:

• Expert Tip
• Ons Jabeur Recent Form
• Donna Vekic Recent Form
• Stat of the Match
• Responsible Gambling

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Ons Jabeur vs Donna Vekic Expert Tip

If Vekic had been playing some strong tennis this week, or Jabeur had played her tough three setter late into the night on Wednesday, or even if Vekic had a strong record in the past against the world No. 5, I could understand why this price was over 1.50 on Jabeur to win and the handicap was in the -3 games range.

I understand Vekic has a strong serve and is decent on quicker courts, but to me this just seems like a bit of a mismatch.

Jabeur has more variety, moves better, is not bothered by players that hit hard and also appreciates playing on a quicker court.

I’ll happily back her to come through here in somewhat straightforward fashion.

Read on for more expert insights.

• Expert Tip: Jabeur -3 Games at 1.89 with Pinnacle, using 4/10 stakes.

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Ons Jabeur Recent Form

Another year, another Wimbledon final for the Tunisian, who was ever-so-close last year after winning the first set against Elena Rybakina, and was the favourite to emerge victorious this time around against Marketa Vondrousova.

Nonetheless, the grass season culminated with a strong result from the 28-year-old, after a rough start between the tournaments in Berlin and Eastbourne.

Now she’s back onto the hard courts in Cincinnati preparing for the U.S. Open and into the third round, after a tougher-than-expected test from the resurgent Anhelina Kalinina.

There are a few things that stand out from that one, as Kalinina finally looks to be fit again after looking less than 100% for a while. She also plays a counterpunching and flat-hitting style that can really bother players who like to dictate from the centre of the baseline. Finally, despite that match carrying on for a rather lengthy period of time, it did happen on Tuesday, so Jabeur had a day to recover, and it served the purpose of potentially shedding any rest that may have been in her game after not having played on hard courts on tour since March.

I like Jabeur’s game too much to pass here against a poor-moving Vekic who hasn’t convinced me at all in her last two matches.

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Donna Vekic Recent Form

Though she is 2-2 since her loss at Wimbledon to the eventual-champion in Vondrousova with a Hopman Cup (exhibition tournament) win for Croatia thrown in, I’m more inclined to say her form has been pretty poor.

For starters, losing to Storm Hunter on clay is never a good look. Even if it isn’t the Croatian’s favourite surface, it is far from Hunter’s best as well.

Then a straight-sets loss on hard courts in Montreal to Jasmine Paolini. While the Italian has picked up her own form of late, it’s still not a good loss and the markets agreed, having priced Vekic as a 1.40 favourite to win by the time the match got underway.

Then there’s the way she’s won this week against both Jennifer Brady (two tight sets against the still-returning American) and Victoria Azarenka (didn’t find a hold of serve until the second set in an error-strewn match that saw her face over 20 break points).

Finally, Vekic has spent nearly 4.5 hours on court in those two wins, played them on back-to-back days, and won’t have a day off to rest and recuperate for this tilt. Further, the match against Azarenka? Didn’t end until well after 10 pm locally.

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Ons Jabeur vs Donna Vekic H2H – Stat of the Match

The head-to-head does favour Jabeur in this matchup, but there is a massive caveat that needs to be attached to that statement. These two haven’t played in years. In fact, they played three times in about a year’s time from late 2018 to late 2019, but not again since.

The Tunisian leads the series 3-1, but it’s also worth noting that Vekic has kept things close on a few occasions.

Now, there’s also the case to be made that Jabeur has improved at a much greater rate since those matches. All of this is to say, it’s just not a great indicator or predictive metric for this particular matchup in 2023.

As for the stat of the match, it comes back to the time on court.

Vekic having spent well over four hours in the last two days on court with no rest and playing into the night on Wednesday would have me looking to oppose her on its own merits, considering she doesn’t enjoy the heat.

Throw in the more talented and well-rounded player only having played one match (though it did take over 2.5 hours) and having a day off? That gives me the situational edge I need to attack this price.

I think -3 was worthy of a play even if we weren’t seeing the time on court situation that we are. With that factored in, I’m happy to raise my stakes a tad more.

Odds as at 12:15 pm UK Time on August 17th, 2023. Odds may now differ.

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Responsible Gambling

At bettingexpert, we always take a responsible approach to gambling. We’ll never bet more than we can afford or chase our losses. For more advice, head to our Responsible Gambling hub.