tennis | Wednesday, April 26, 2023 8:12 AM

Wednesday Tennis Best Bet: ATP Madrid, Oscar Otte vs Pavel Kotov

Jon Reid

Oscar Otte vs Pavel Kotov Best Bet: Wednesday, April 26th

Nothing doing on Tuesday with Giulio Zeppieri, who looked as though he was about to claim the opening set at 5-1 up in the tiebreak, before losing the final six points of the set and eventually the match to Marco Cecchinato.

For Wednesday, it’s onto the main draw, as Oscar Otte takes on Pavel Kotov in our featured match from Madrid.

In this article:

Oscar Otte vs Pavel Kotov Preview
Oscar Otte vs Pavel Kotov Best Bet

Oscar Otte vs Pavel Kotov Preview

April 26th, 14:30 (UK Time)

Good fortune struck for Kotov, after he lost a nail-biter in the second round of qualifying on Tuesday in a third-set tiebreak to Yosuke Watanuki, as he got a lucky loser spot into Madrid’s main draw.

He’ll fill the spot left void by Fabio Fognini’s withdrawal and take on the big German.

It’ll be a tough task for the 24-year-old, however, for a few reasons.

For starters, Otte – not normally a clay courter – has a booming serve and has had a bit of success in recent years when playing at altitude.

We saw it last year in Munich, where he won several matches before losing to the eventual champion in Holger Rune. He managed to win a match this year in Munich as well as a rather large underdog against Sebastian Baez, before losing in three to the talented Italian Flavio Cobolli.

He’s once again playing in an environment where his booming first serve will get some help from the thin air, as the tour shifts to the Spanish capital, and I’d anticipate a slew of service holds for him on Wednesday.

That’s because the other reason that this could be a tough test for Kotov is simply due to the time he’s spent on court in the last few days.

Not only did he lose in a third-set tiebreak to Watanuki on Tuesday, but his first-rounder against Kimmer Coppejans also went to a tiebreak in the deciding sets.

That is a lot of tennis played in the last two days (nearly six hours). Now he doesn’t even receive a day off before having to get right back to it against a fresh Otte.

Kotov has a decent game and strong enough serve in his own right, along with decent variety, but potential fatigue for a guy who isn’t the fittest has to be top of mind in this spot.

It’s also worth noting that returning can demand a lot of energy, especially when it comes to pushing back effective returns against a strong first serve like Otte’s. Along with what could be an already-depleting energy reserve, those Otte serves could accelerate the fatigue here for the Russian.

Oscar Otte vs Pavel Kotov Best Bet

I think the time on court and matchup angles here should make Otte a pretty clear favourite.

Yet the markets have him priced in the 1.57-1.60 range. Considering Otte’s penchant for finding a bit more success on red clay when playing at altitude and the fact that he’s well-equipped to really wear his opponent down physically as this match carries on, I have him as a much larger favourite than we’re seeing at the moment.