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Tennis | Wednesday, May 15, 2024 9:00 AM

Big-Serving Sabalenka: Jelena Ostapenko vs Aryna Sabalenka Prediction, Picks, Odds, H2H Stats, News - 5/15/24

Big-Serving Sabalenka: Jelena Ostapenko vs Aryna Sabalenka Prediction, Picks, Odds, H2H Stats, News - 5/15/24
Associated Press / Alamy Stock Photo: Aryna Sabalenka of Belarus celebrates a winning point

Jelena Ostapenko eyes a consecutive semifinal appearance in Rome but she has to get past Aryna Sabalenka in the quarterfinal to get there. Ej’s Ostapenko vs Sabalenka prediction at odds of +125 is featured below..

Sabalenka has been caught sleeping out of the gate in two of her three matches at the Italian Open, as her issues in the opening set could come back to haunt her. The last time Sabalenka reached the QF in Rome, she advanced to face Iga Swiatek in the 2022 Internazionali BNL d’Italia semifinals.

Ostapenko has failed to defeat Sabalenka in two attempts, and the line setters strongly believe that the Latvian will fall in Rome.

For more tennis picks and predictions, check out our Expert Insights section. 


  • Prediction: 1st Set Total Over 9.5 Games
  • Best Odds: +125 (2.25)
  • Bookmaker: Pinnacle
  • Stakes: 3/10

Odds as of 7:00 am UK Time May 15, 2024. Odds may now differ.

Jelena Ostapenko reached the semifinals of the Italian Open a season ago, and she is one step away from another appearance at that stage in this WTA-1000 event in Rome.

The continuing saga of Sabalenka’s service has reared its ugly head again, and she has been behind the 8-ball twice in three matches at the Italian Open.

Sabalenka has dropped the first set to Volynets and Svitolina, and the World’s #2 Ranked player on tour has got to figure out how to stay consistent with her serve. Svitolina was given 7 break point opportunities in the first set against Sabalenka in the Round of 16, two of which she turned into a 6 – 4 win.

We all know the history of Sabalenka getting in her head when it comes to serving, and overall she gave Svitolina 18 break chances before moving on to the quarterfinals.

It took Sabalenka five years on tour to figure out the clay, but since 2020 she has excelled on this surface with two titles in Madrid (‘21 & ‘23).

Ostapenko won the 2017 French Open and has not won an event on this surface since. She made a nice run to the semifinal here in Rome last season, All three sets Jelena played against Sramkova needed at least 10 games, and I expect more of the same to transpire from this matchup with Sabalenka.

Sabalenka’s serve can be an issue at any time, and Ostapenko should come out strong out of the gate to test Aryna’s ability to stay composed. Sabalenka tends to lose her sh… um, stuff, on the court, and she doesn’t try to hide her emotional frustration.

Sabalenka 6 – 4 Ostapenko is your first set result, and a +125 is our price on the Over 9.5 Games. My Ostapenko vs Sabalenka prediction is Over 9.5 games in the 1st set. 


Ostapenko was 7 – 4 on clay last season and has a 5 – 2 record on the dirt this campaign. Her 24 – 9 overall record for the year is on pace for her fourth consecutive 30+-Win season.

Jelena already has two titles to her credit in 2024 with wins at  Linz and Adelaide.

Since her title in February at Linz, this is the first time Ostapenko has won three consecutive matches on any surface.


Sabalenka’s recent form is easy to figure out because her service game is a crap shoot. Like a box of chocolates, you never know which Sabalenka will show up to cause issues. Giving your opponent 18 chances to break your serve in one match is exactly what she just did against Svitolina. 

Aryna has dropped a set in 10 of her last 12 matches, the first set being the one that causes her the most trouble. 


Ostapenko will try to take down Sabalenka for the first time, as she is 0 – 2 against the World’s #2.

Their last meeting was in Dubai in 2023. and three sets were needed to decide the winner of the match.  


At bettingexpert, we always take a safe approach to gambling. We’ll never bet more than we can afford or chase losses. For more advice, head to our Safer Gambling hub.

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