Jasmine Paolini vs Anastasia Potapova Prediction, Odds, Preview, H2H, 3/12/24

Our next preview from the BNP Paribas Open comes from the WTA draw, – our Jasmine Paolini vs Anastasia Potapova prediction. Potapova’s win probability is only 43.5% while Paolini is favoured to win at 1.62 odds. The handicap is 2 games and the total games line is 21.5.

It’s a big month of tennis with the Sunshine Double in full swing. Be sure to head over to the Expert Insights section each day to see our tips for the day!

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Jasmine Paolini vs Anastasia Potapova Prediction

• Prediction: Potapova to win
• Best Odds: 2.30
• Bookmaker: Bet365
• Stakes: 2/10

Odds as at 3:15 am UK Time on March 12th, 2024. Odds may now differ.

As strong as this recent run of form has been for Paolini, I think the seven-match win streak is starting to see the betting markets overreact a tad.

I’m not sure I’d make the case that Potapova should be the favourite, but I certainly think this match is a toss-up. Paolini can redirect pace and probably plays a more even game style, but the Russian has the weapons from the baseline and her highest level is better than that of Paolini.

My Paolini vs Potapova prediction is for Potapova to win at 2.30 odds.

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Jasmine Paolini Recent Form

The last month or so has probably been the best of the 28-year-old’s career. She’s pushed her way into the top 15 and has racked up win after win between Dubai and her first two matches in the last week in Indian Wells.

Looking back at her run though, Paolini’s best wins have come against Anna Kalinskaya (a familiar rivalry in the young 2024 season) and Maria Sakkari (who has been uncharacteristically poor for quite some time).

The diminutive Italian can actually generate a decent amount of pop on the forehand side, but she can also hit a bunch of errors from that wing and there’s a good chance she’ll be on the back foot in this matchup, at least in the forehand exchanges.

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Anastasia Potapova Recent Form

The start to the season for the world No. 33 was nothing to write home about. Her power was fine, but the errors were flowing at far too high a rate and it led to early exits in Melbourne and Doha, and even in her quarterfinal run in Linz, she didn’t look very good in her victory over Elisabetta Cocciaretto.

She had a tough time in her loss to Qinwen Zheng in Dubai, but she’s also looked good in each of her four wins since the start of that tournament, with five sets won by a score of 6-2 or better.

As she continues to find the range more and more from the baseline, she’s starting to look more like the player who was knocking on the door of the top 20.

If she can land enough first serves, she should be in a good position.

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Jasmine Paolini vs Anastasia Potapova H2H – Stat of the Match

Despite both having been at the main tour level for quite some time now and both playing most big events, Paolini and Potapova have yet to play at the professional level.

Paolini’s recent run has seen her surge ahead in the blended hard court elo ratings, though as Potapova continues to steady her game, I’d continue to back her on the surface as an underdog every time she’s offered at those odds.

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