Tommy Paul vs Alexander Bublik Prediction, Stats, Form, H2H, July 5th

The third round of Wimbledon kicks off from the All England Club on Friday and we have one of the best matches of the day to preview. Let’s look at two very talented, strong grass courters squaring off in Tommy Paul vs Alexander Bublik.

Bublik’s win probability is about 35%, while Paul is favoured to win at 1.49 odds. The handicap is 3.5 games and the total games line is 38.5.

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Our Paul vs Bublik prediction is for Bublik to pull off the upset.

Tommy Paul vs Alexander Bublik (Wimbledon) Prediction: Underdog Has Gone From Properly Priced to Value

• Prediction: Bublik to win
• Best Odds: 2.68
• Bookmaker: Pinnacle
• Stakes: 2/10

Odds as at 2:30 am UK Time on July 5th, 2024. Odds may now differ.

There’s been a lot of movement in this market, with Bublik having gone from the 2.40 range up to 2.90 and back down to 2.60. I think at 2.40 he was on the border of being a price I’d back. At 2.90 he would’ve been a larger stake. At the current levels, I’m happy to back him at 2.70 for a standard stake.

Look, Paul is in form and I think his win last round, even as a large favourite, showed incredible patience and resilience. That and a title at Queen’s Club is not enough for me to have him as a big favourite against Bublik.

The Kazakh can be quirky and lack motivation at times, but he’s an excellent grass court player. He’s a big serve, can hit the forehand with plenty of power, moves well for a big man and he’s got nice touch at the net and is not afraid to hit the dropshot. Basically everything that helps you on grass.

You give me a sub-40% valuation and I’m all over it.

Tommy Paul Recent Form

Seven wins on the trot for the 27-year-old from the east coast in the United States. That is in addition to him playing by far his most composed, competitive, high level tennis we’ve seen.

Do not get me wrong, this bet is not a wager against Paul so much as it’s a bet on the fact that his opponent is incredibly talented and being disrespected.

Paul has a nice forehand, albeit not overly powerful, great athleticism and his coaches have focused on having him be more aggressive and take the ball earlier – and it has worked.

He won the title at Queen’s Club, beating some decent players en route to lifting the trophy and he’s won a pair of matches here (though he has dropped some sets). The second was particularly impressive against a huge hitter that was hitting a crazy number of low margin shots in the early stages, but Paul stayed composed and waited out his opportunities.

If he can keep his run going here, I’d be very impressed and it would be his best win yet, but I’m not convinced.

Alexander Bublik Recent Form

Though sometimes known for playing at a suboptimal level (to put it kindly) at some lesser tournaments, he’s looked pretty strong to this point at The Championships. He started slowly against the incredibly talented youngster Jakub Mensik, but has won his last six sets, beating another talented player who has shown some quick court chops in 2024 in Arthur Cazaux.

Similarly to Paul, this is his toughest test to date, but any injury concerns from lead-in tournaments should be in the rearview by now looking at the way he’s played and as I outlined above, he has all the necessary tools to succeed against just about anyone on this surface.

Tommy Paul vs Alexander Bublik H2H – Stat of the Match

Paul does lead the head-to-head here 3-1, but as anyone who reads these daily knows, I don’t really consider anything from over two to three years ago all that relevant. With these not having played since February 2021, I’m not going to be dissuaded here.

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