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Tennis | Friday, May 17, 2024 8:02 AM

Tommy Paul vs Nicolas Jarry Prediction, Picks, News, H2H, May 17th

Tommy Paul vs Nicolas Jarry Prediction, Picks, News, H2H, May 17th
Mariano Garcia / Alamy Stock Photo: Nicolas Jarry (Chile)

The second ATP semifinal at the Internazionali BNL d’Italia features two surging players competing for a spot in their first-ever Masters 1000 final. Let’s look more at Tommy Paul vs Nicolas Jarry. Our Paul vs Jarry prediction at 2.03 odds is available below!

Jarry’s win probability is about 50%, with Paul favored at 1.89 odds. The handicap is 0 games and the total games line is 23.

Paul vs Jarry Prediction: Too Much Going for the Big Chilean to be the Underdog in Semis

  • Prediction: Jarry to win
  • Best Odds: 2.03
  • Bookmaker: Pinnacle
  • Stakes: 3/10

Odds as at 1:00 am UK Time on May 17th, 2024. Odds may now differ.

It’s important not to overreact to one match whether it be positive or negative, but I do think Paul’s match against Hurkacz was telling in a way of why this price for Jarry is showing some value.

For starters, Jarry is the more natural clay courter of the two. Paul isn’t incompetent by any means on the dirt, but it’s not his preferred surface and he can struggle to hit through the conditions sometimes.

That brings me to my next point. Though Paul was off-court first on Thursday and Jarry played a longer match at night, this one taking place at night also benefits Jarry for me. As he showed us against Stefanos Tsitsipas, he can still find plenty of cheap points in the slower conditions with his huge first serve and his groundstrokes penetrate the courts and his opposition’s defenses.

Paul, on the other hand, really struggled to generate much offense. The slower surface and its effects on his game were readily apparent, with his first serve and first forehands lacking the potency to consistently maintain control of the points.

He was able to use the fact that his forehand was miles better than Hubert Hurkacz’s to hold on for the win, but against a big, powerful forehand in this matchup, I’m not so confident.

Jarry is the player more likely to generate pressure on return and possess more power and comfort on clay, I’m confident in my assessment that he should be the favorite.

Check out our preview for Alexander Zverev vs Alejandro Tabilo on the expert insights page. Our Paul vs Jarry prediction is for Jarry to win.


Tommy Paul Recent Form

Four matches, and four wins for Paul now in Rome, as he has reached his fourth semifinal at the Masters 1000 level and his first on clay. A win on Friday and it’ll be his first-ever final at this level.

The problem is, though he’s beaten Daniil Medvedev and Hubert Hurkacz in this event, he still hasn’t beaten someone that is at their best on clay.

Jarry presents the first player with a huge serve, heavy groundstrokes, and a natural clay court game that he’s been tasked with beating.

He is the better mover and plays a more consistent and tactical game, so he’s certainly in with a chance (as the odds would also indicate), but I don’t think he should be a slight favorite or even a coin flip chance.


Nicolas Jarry Recent Form

Jarry needed some form heading into Roland Garros and boy has he found it.

There was some good fortune in his last win against Tsitsipas, but he played a smart match and emerged victorious against one of most in-form players on tour this clay season. He took care of business against Alexandre Muller as well (where we accurately described him as undervalued) and beat Matteo Arnaldi in his first match.

Not only does he have a few nice wins, but he’s been consistently undervalued by the market. I understand that Monte Carlo, Barcelona and Madrid didn’t go as he had hoped, but those three early losses should not be enough to make him undervalued match after match this fortnight.

Keep in mind, he made a final back in Buenos Aires during the South American Golden Swing and he’s won three career ATP titles, all coming on clay.

He’s a strong player that has burst into the top-30 and is on his preferred surface.

Continue to underestimate him at your own peril. I’m going to continue to trust him at the current market valuation.


Tommy Paul vs Nicolas Jarry H2H – Stat of the Match

Paul has the career lead in this matchup 2-1.The first Paul win happened 10 years ago and means absolutely nothing.

His other win came in 2020 on quick hard courts.

The most recent matchup? A four-set Jarry win last season at the French Open.


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